Congress vs BJP: Damned if they name PM candidates, damned if they don’t

The Congress has no alternative. The Prime Minister’s two USPs have been compromised. It’s quite some time since Dr Singh the reformist lost his Midas touch. Then the incorruptible Mr Clean bit the dust with investigations in multiple scams finding their ways to the PMO. The party cannot fight a tough election under a leader whose liabilities are no more limited to bouts of suspicious silence and inaction (not to mention that torturous drone). The only other eligible Congressman whom the first family could have trusted has already been kicked upstairs to Rashtrapati Bhawan. No, Ahmad Patel was never South Block material. P Chidambaram did manage to upstage Pranab Mukherjee to reclaim his preferred North Block office but that will remain his biggest intra-party coup. Anyway, the first family is unlikely to trust a Chettiar from the South after its experience with a certain Telegu Bramin. Besides, any member of the UPA cabinet will carry the burden of the scam-raj still unfolding. [caption id=“attachment_1094423” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. AFP image[/caption] That makes Rahul Gandhi the only PM candidate the Congress can and must project, if only for the fact that he has not been part of this scam-tainted, or any, government. In him, the party can hope to project an alternative to the corrupt and failed leadership. No, the party cannot invent a new cabinet and voters know that given another mandate, most of its dubious ministers will return. Yet, projecting an untested (hence, baggage-free) leadership is the party’s best, even if diversionary, strategy under the circumstances. The BJP has no alternative either. Not a single national leader in the party generates much hope. LK Advani has tripped twice: first as the ‘ironman’ in 2004, after prevailing upon Vajpayee in 2002 to abandon his rajdharma; then on his own in 2009 after failing to do a Vajpayee with his Jinnah comment in 2005. Even the fast-receding ranks of his loyalists do not expect him to pack enough punch to get third-time lucky. None of the party’s other national leaders enjoys a truly national profile; certainly not outside news TV studios. Barring Narendra Modi, none of its chief ministers is articulate or charismatic enough to sell themselves beyond their states. That makes Modi, the party’s most recognizable face today, the obvious PM candidate. He has successfully fought three elections as chief minister and projected himself as the vikas purush. He is the only leader who, his party workers believe, can swing a general election. Yet, while individual leaders are leaving little to conjecture, both Congress and BJP have tiptoed around formally naming their PM candidates. Not without reasons. Rahul Gandhi is untested and baggage-free only as far as governance is concerned. He has led the party’s state election campaigns in the past. His Mission UP increased the Congress vote share but achieved nothing to back the ‘miracle man’ image pumped up so assiduously under his party’s Mission Rahul. Consequently, the party projected him as a man not in a hurry and on a learning curve to deflect criticism from the tired symbolism of his politics and speeches. While the return of a Gandhi after two decades may appeal to certain segments of the electorate, another sizeable segment of it is already suspicious of his credentials, abilities and motive. After claiming repeatedly that he would first take up a ministerial position to prepare himself for the big job, Rahul will struggle to explain what, if not desperation, suddenly made him take the plunge. His appeal to young voters is also suspect. Within the party, his youth brigade is a collection of scions of other political dynasties and a few first-generation sycophants whose bright ideas include a proposal to gag the press. Moreover, the Congress risks further alienating the pro-reform youth, middle class and industries – already a strong Modi constituency – by projecting Rahul as its PM candidate. For some time now, the party’s two-pronged policy – the pro-poor initiatives, such as the tribal rights, food and land Acts, of Sonia and her NAC; and the thrust on big ticket reforms by Team Manmohan (Chidambaram, Montek, Kamal Nath etc) – catered to two opposite spectrums of the electorate. By making headlines with Odisha tribals, UP farmers or Vidarbha widows, Rahul has positioned himself closer to Sonia. He cannot reinvent himself overnight as a champion of reforms to calm frayed nerves. The BJP, on the other hand, is very much aware of the divisive powers of Brand Modi. With him as the official PM candidate, the party knows it will have to sacrifice minority votes. That is why party units in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are apparently pleading with the central leadership to avoid formally naming Modi as the PM candidate till the November-December Assembly elections get over. Ultimately, the success of the BJP in 2014 will depend on Modi’s ability to garner enough majority votes for the party to offset the impact of minority votes gravitating to its opponents. But unless it emerges as the single largest party with at least 220 seats, the BJP may struggle to find allies necessary to back Modi for the prime ministership. On the other hand, without a pre-designated candidate, the BJP may attract enough allies with even 180 seats if now-secular-in-comparison Advani is propped up as the PM candidate after the poll. But can the BJP expect to bag even 180 seats without Narendra Modi as its official mascot? Can the Congress afford to face the electorate without changing its scam-tainted face, even if it has only Rahul Gandhi to draft in? Neither of the parties may eventually benefit but they don’t seem to have an alternative. jaymazoomdaar@gmail.com