Yearender: 5 bilateral ties that turned turtle in 2024

The year 2024 witnessed significant changes in the international arena. While old allies were seen turning into foes in some cases, small cracks between the two nations widened in others. Bilateral ties between several nations changed dramatically, indicating how the geopolitical landscape keeps on changing.

While some decided to forget animosities and bolster ties with each other, relations between some other nations deteriorated to such an extent that many fear there’s no coming back. One of the biggest deterioration of bilateral ties India witnessed was with Canada, where the assassination of a pro-Khalistani terrorist continued to remain at the centre of an intense diplomatic row.

As we turn to a new year and a new chapter. Here’s a look at how bilateral ties between the following nations turned turtle in 2024.

1. India-Canda: Rise in Khalistan movement remains at the centre

The cracks between India and Canada ties have been long drawn, however, they widened in 2024. At the heart of the issue was the assassination of pro-Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in 2023, sparking a chain of events that changed the trajectory of the ties between the two countries. Following the demise of Nijjar, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stood at the parliament and said that agents working for the Indian government were responsible for Nijjar’s killing.

India refuted the claims calling it “absurd” and demanded evidence. This ultimately led to suspension of the several diplomats from both nations. While the stage was set for a tussle in 2023, the year 2024 saw the rise of the pro-Khalistani movement across Canada. While the Indian government raised concerns over the matter, the Canadian government did little to nothing to deal with the rise in vandalism of Hindu temples and the threats Indian diplomats were facing in Ottawa.

In May 2024, the Canadian police arrested and charged three individuals in connection with the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The three individuals were identified as Karanpreet Singh (28), Kamalpreet Singh (22), and Karan Brar (22). A few days later the authorities nabbed the fourth suspect in the case. Two months later BAPS Swaminarayan Mandir in Edmonton fell victim to vandalism. India once again raised concerns about the violent nature of the Khalistani movement, but not a lot was done in this regard.

On October 15, Trudeau accused Indian agents of engaging in “clandestine information-gathering techniques, coercive behaviour targeting Canadians, and involvement in threatening and violent acts.” Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly later said that Indian diplomats operating in Ottawa are under surveillance. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs raised concerns over the matter, but the cracks between the two nations widened.

2. US-Venezuela: From oil reserves to problematic election, the decline was apparent

The year 2024 marked a significant escalation of a tussle between the US and Venezuela. America’s displeasure with Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro is a known fact around the world. Washington has frequently criticised Maduro’s draconian regime and called out the human rights abuse in the country. This year was no different in this regard.

Two factors that contributed to the deterioration of US-Venezula relations in the year 2024 were: Venezuela’s growing assertiveness over Guyana and the country’s problematic presidential elections. It is pertinent to note that there has been a long-standing territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region which escalated into a crisis last year.

While the region is controlled by Guyana but is claimed by Venezuela. In March 2024, Venezuela passed a law that designated Essequibo as a new state of Venezuela, governed by the city of Tumeremo. The law submitted to the US Supreme Court received validation soon after.

Guyana condemned the move and raised concerns about the ground Venezuelan aggression. Amid the chaos, the United States jumped in Guyana’s favour and introduced additional sanctions against Maduro’s regime. Not only this, The US government also increased its urgent military assistance to Guyana, helping the nation to buy new aircraft, helicopters and drones for the defence of its territories. This angered the Maduro administration.

Amid the chaos, Venezuela conducted turbulent presidential elections on 24 July 2024. While the country was choosing its president for the next six years, protests erupted across the country with many demanding Maduro’s resignation. The results of the election caused major instability across the nation with opposition leaders claiming that Edmundo González won the presidential race.

While the country’s election commission and the Supreme Court validated Maduro’s win, opposition parties showed tallies in which González was seen as the clear winner. The US State Department stated in November, recognising Edmundo González  as the president-elect. In return, Maduro launched a major crackdown against his opponents which eventually forced González to free the country.

It is highly unlikely that the US and Venezuela will seek things through as long as Maduro is at the helm of things.

3. Pakistan-Afghanistan: How supporting the Taliban became costly for Islamabad

When the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed delivered a triumphant news conference at the Torkham crossing with Afghanistan. Pakistan’s then-Prime Minister Imran Khan equated the Taliban’s return to power with Afghans having “broken the shackles of slavery”.

Taliban and Pakistan share strong ties for time immemorial. Many Taliban leaders and fighters are graduates of Pakistani Islamic religious schools, including the Darul Uloom Haqqania, where Mullah Muhammad Omar, the founder of the Taliban movement, studied. Many believe that without Pakistan’s support and sanctuary, the Taliban would have not been able to gain ground in Kabul again.

However, things changed for the worse, between the two nations this year. After assuming powers, many believed that the Taliban regime proved to be less cooperative than Pakistan had hoped. At the heart of the tussle between the two is the Durand Line, which is internationally recognised as a border between the two countries.

In the 1990s the Taliban government did not endorse the Durand Line, and the current Taliban regime is following its predecessors. After the Taliban took over Kabul, armed rebellion shifted towards Pakistan. In 2024, the Pakistani faction of the Taliban conducted several attacks, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.

Meanwhile, Pakistan also launched a deportation campaign sending hundreds of Afghani refugees back to the country. Not only this, in March, Pakistan conducted air strikes on the Afghanistan territory, the first attack conducted by Islamabad since 2022. Many believe that the growing skirmishes between the two nations are quite likely to increase in the upcoming year.

4. Iran-Saudi Arabia:  A path towards stability

While West Asia was embroiled in one conflict and another, Iran and Saudi Arabia were trying to mend their decades-long rivalry. In 2023, the two nations signed a deal which was brokered by China. This initiated frequent diplomatic exchanges after a long lull. In October this year, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi paid a visit to Riyadh where he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Both nations have a vested interest in regards to improving ties with each other. After Iran attacked Saudi oil facilities in 2019, Riyadh realised that it would have to mend ties with West Asian nations to protect its vital resources. Meanwhile, Iran thinks that building strong ties with uber-rich Saudi Arabia will help boost its crippling economy.

However, the countries are heading towards the path of rapprochement with caution. Both the Israel-Hamas war and the operation of Yemen’s Houthis continue to remain a source of contention between the two nations.

5. North Korea-Russia: The new friends in town

North Korea emerged as one of the strongest allies of Russia soon after the country started invading Ukraine in February 2022. Right from 2023, diplomats from both nations held a plethora of meetings, making the West uncomfortable. In September last year, Kim Jong Un travelled to Russia’s Far East for a second summit with Putin. They discuss military cooperation, the war in Ukraine and Russian help for North Korea’s satellite programme.

Soon after this both the US and Ukraine accused North Korea of sending weapons to Russia, with both nations denying the accusation. In June 2024 Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a second visit to Pyongyang and both leaders ultimately signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty.

Under the agreement, the two nations stated that they would help each other in case of any sort of attack. In November this year, Ukraine eventually revealed that 11,000 North Korean troops are currently stationed on the Russian border, with the West fearing more deployments.

The ties between the two nations are most likely to grow in 2025.