Xi-Modi meet: Investments, yes, but there will not be any India-China bhai bhai

Hours before Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives on a three-day state visit, India-China relations have been hit by some diplomatic hard talk by Beijing. China has expressed its displeasure over the India-Vietnam offshore oil exploration agreement signed during President Pranab Mukherjee’s Vietnam visit. Mukherjee’s Vietnam trips began on 14 September and will end today. The agreement was signed on 15 September. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei went on record on Tuesday warning India against ONGC’s exploration of oil wells (in Vietnam) within the waters of the disputed South China Sea and subtly reminding India that our forays into Vietnam in oil exploration areas will have to have the  “approval” of China. Hong said: “We have noted President’s Mukherjee’s visit to Vietnam. I would like to point out that China has indisputable sovereignty over Nansha islands and adjacent waters … If such agreement concerns waters administered by China or if such cooperation project is not approved by the Chinese government, then we will be concerned about such an agreement and we will not support it.” [caption id=“attachment_1715999” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Xi Jinping. AFP.[/caption] China is also livid about India rapidly deepening its strategic ties with Vietnam and Japan, the two countries China has fought wars with. This when China has been bolstering its ties with South Asian countries and Xi Jinping himself has just completed bilateral visits to Maldives and Sri Lanka, intensifying the Sino-Indian geo-strategic rivalries in the region. Besides, there has been another dampener in India-China bilateral relations in the form of long-drawn incursions by the Chinese into Indian territory. The India-China standoff in Demchok area of Ladakh entered the eleventh day on Wednesday. The Chinese pushed the envelope on Tuesday with a new tactic when Chinese nomads pitched tents inside Indian territory with the help of Chinese army. Thus far it was the Chinese troops who were launching deep incursions into Indian territory but the ongoing Demchok incident has shown that the Chinese army has now started using civilians as a shield. The Chinese nomads have refused to vacate the Indian territory in Demchok until the Indians stopped work on construction of an irrigation canal in the area. The Demchok incident is a firm indication from the Chinese side that no breakthrough will be achieved on India-China boundary dispute during Xi’s India visit. Beijing waving a red flag to India over New Delhi’s deepening ties with Hanoi in areas like oil exploration and defence indicates that the deep-seated mutual suspicion between India and China is not going to melt into thin air by top-level to-and-fro visits. The timing of top-level visits from India and China to other countries in the region tells a tale. On the eve of Xi’s India visit, President Pranab Mukherjee completes his highly substantive bilateral visit to Vietnam during which seven agreements are signed, including in areas like defence and oil exploration. From China’s perspective, Xi visits Maldives and Sri Lanka and deepens Beijing’s strategic ties with the two South Asian countries which are in India’s backyard. Thus the two sides continue to be engaged in a game of one-upmanship on the geostrategic chess board covertly while overtly they sweet talk each other through top level political visits. China has reacted sharply over President Mukherjee’s Vietnam visit because it fears that the 15 September MoU on $100 million Line of Credit for Defence Procurement between India and Vietnam is just the beginning of intense defence cooperation between the two countries, both of which have fought a war with China. The Line of Credit opens new opportunities in India-Vietnam defence cooperation. Besides, China is also wary of the fearful symmetry among India-Russia-Vietnam when it comes to defence matters. Vietnam is already very keen on buying BrahMos missiles, an Indo-Russian joint venture. The Russians are working in a big way with Vietnamese navy and signed up an agreement to sell submarines to Vietnam which will bolster Vietnam’s naval deterrent vis a vis China. The specter of Vietnam having Russian submarines fitted with Indian missiles is extremely annoying for China. Against this backdrop, the bottom-line is this. Xi’s India visit will be high on economic agenda but low on strategic content. Xi may loosen Chinese purse strings to India, but strategically China continues to remain a tough nut to crack. Trust deficit continues to plague India-China relations. The writer is Firstpost Consulting Editor and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha