Xi meets Ishiba: What explains China's new-found warmth for Japan

India is not the only country that China has been dialing down tensions with lately. It has also reached out to Japan lately.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Peru and told him that the two nations should be “partners, not threats”.

Such an outreach comes at a time when US President-elect Donald Trump is set to bring a hawkish approach to China that may see blanket tariffs of up to a minimum of 60 per cent on all Chinese goods. Before Trump takes over with expectations of ramping up the trade war, Xi is attempting to relatively calm relations with other nations it has conflicts with, such as India or China.

China and Japan have a historic rivalry and are locked in maritime disputes. Japan is one of the many nations China has disputes in the waters it calls South China Sea. China’s maximalist maritime claims have been rejected under international law.

In addition to historic rivalry and maritime disputes, China and Japan are locked in a tussle around Taiwan, trade, and other issues.

To be sure, Japan and China are not going back to being friends. Japan is a treaty ally of the United States, the principal adversary of China, and is a key partner of other Chinese challenger India. Japan is part of Quad along with India, Australia, and the United States — Australia is another country Japan’s relationship hit rock-bottom in recent years and has only recently started improving.

While China and Japan continue to remain in opposite camps, Xi is reaching out to smoothen ties to concentrate on the bigger conflict with the United States.

China’s economic woes

China is not in a position for all-round trade conflict as it is economy is doing poorly.

In the last quarter, the Chinese economic growth slowed to 4.6 per cent from 4.7 per cent. The annual growth is expected to miss the modest 5 per cent target.

The real estate crash, the ballooning debt crisis with the local governments, fall in exports, and foreign investments are some of the reasons that have driven China’s economic woes. While the outgoing Joe Biden administration of the United States pursued a targeted trade and tech war with China, hitting at semiconductor, electric vehicles, and metals, among other goods, President-elect Trump has said he could impose blanket tariffs of 60 per cent or above.

An analysis by investment and financial services firm UBS found that China could lose as much as 2.5 per cent of GDP if the United States imposes 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese goods.

To cushion the blow from Trump’s economic confrontation, China would need other avenues and that’s where Japan comes in.

In a sign that China is trying to boost trade with other nations to cushion the blow from the expected disruption from Trump, China has indicated it would lift the ban on seafood imports from Japan.

With Trump coming, US-China ties set to nosedive

As mentioned earlier, the US-China relations are expected to nosedive under Trump.

To focus on the conflict with the United States, China is trying to stabilise other conflicts.

To cushion the blow from trade disruption with the United States, China is trying to boost trade ties with other countries, such as Japan, Australia, and some European nations.

As China depends on manufacturing and exports to a great extent, Trump’s push to take the manufacturing out of China and create jobs in the United States could create troubles for China. Hence, China is widening the net of nations it can cooperate with during Trump’s term.

Though Ishiba is politically weak, Japan looks on a firmer ground

Ishiba is running a minority government in Japan. Geopolitically, however, Japan is well-placed.

While Japan is a US ally, it is also a partner with India and other nations in the Indo-Pacific region. It just hosted a meeting of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance as well in a growing sign of convergence with the Western bloc.

For China, this makes Japan a useful country to have stable relations with. While Ishiba would be keen to stabilise ties with China for his own political benefits, China would also benefit as it may turn to Japan to offset trade loss or maybe a go-between in times of escalation with the United States.