With Iran's missile attack on Israel, did Khamenei miscalculate & overplay his hand?

For years, Iran and Israel have engaged in an intensive shadow war and have consciously avoided a direct all-out war. That may be about to change.

Following Iran’s missile attack at Israel earlier this week, an all-out war between the two archenemies looks more likely than ever.

To advance its interests in the Middle East and wage an indirect war against Israel and its ally the United States, Iran sponsors a number of armed groups, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. Of these groups, Hezbollah is the largest and strongest and also the closest to Iran.

These armed groups, under the banner of the ‘Axis of Resistance’, have been central to Iran’s geopolitical ambitions and yearslong indirect war on Israel. Now, however, as Iran has attacked Israel directly for the second time this year, the Islamist regime has bypassed this network and jumped in the ring itself. While Iran appears to have been driven by the idea that the missile attack may deter Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has remained defiant .

Just like Mohammed Deif of Hamas and Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah before them, the ruler in Tehran made a big mistake and will pay for it, said Netanyahu.

By all accounts, Israel is expected to respond much more forcefully this time than in April — when Iran attacked Israel for the first time ever. Following this week’s attack, Iran sent out messages appearing to seek an off-ramp , such as Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi noting that Iran only hit military targets and has no interest in any more attacks. But it appears to have miscalculated the Israeli appetite for tolerance and risk.

Iran was cornered & felt had no option but to act

In recent weeks, Israel had cornered Iran like never before. In July, it suffered colossal embarrassment when Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated hours after he attended the presidential inauguration. Then, in September, in a stunning sabotage and military campaign, Israel took down Hezbollah’s communication network and took down its entire leadership — including chief Nasrallah .

At the same time, Israel’s principal Palestinian ally, Hamas, had been practically removed from power in Gaza Strip and reduced to a scattered insurgent group.

For the sake of keeping the so-called Axis of Resistance together, Iran felt it had no choice but to act, says Md. Muddassir Quamar, a scholar of Middle Eastern affairs at the Jawaharlal Nehru University’s (JNU) School of International Studies (SIS).

“The Iranian intention with the missile attack was to set the record straight and not escalate. It needed to respond —even if symbolically— to instil the confidence among the ‘Axis of Resistance’ that Iran is with them and to signal to Israel and the United States that Iran will not sit idle while Israel went about decimating Hamas and Hezbollah,” says Quamar.

By all counts, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran who approved this week’s attack, appears to have miscalculated.

Quamar tells Firstpost even though Iran may not have sought an escalation, it is inevitable.

“Even if unintended, the escalation is inevitable, especially as Netanyahu has directly addressed the Iranian people and threatened a regime change in Iran,” says Quamar, an Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies at JNU’s SIS.

Iran miscalculated Israeli tolerance for risk & taking hits

The entire point of having the ‘Axis of Resistance’ was to avoid an all-out direct war and wage a shadow war.

As Iran has now engaged Israel directly, it has negated the very premise of these groups. Now, Iran does not have plausible deniability and can no longer avoid a direct confrontation by claiming that non-state actors —and not Iranian regime— carried out attacks.

Iran made a series of miscalculations in launching this week’s missile attack.

One, Iran overestimated the Israeli tolerance for attacks. In the nearly yearlong war, Iran and its groups have crossed nearly all red lines for Israel — abduction of civilian elderly and kids, mass-rape, bombardment of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and displacement of several thousands of Israelis for nearly a year. With such red lines crossed, a ballistic missile barrage appears to be the final straw. Iran believed Israel will tolerate this too and not risk a war over it — a miscalculation.

Two, Iran underestimated the Israeli appetite for risk. After nearly a year of war, even as Israeli intelligence and security apparatus failed initially, the Mossad and military have stunningly salvaged their reputation with assassinations in Tehran, Gaza, and Beirut, and systemic infiltration and dismantling of enemy’s communication system. Despite acts after acts, Israel staved off any real consequences. Now, emboldened with such successes, Israel’s appetite for risk is high.

Quamar, the Middle East expert at JNU’s SIS, tell Firstpost that Isael is not just emboldened but there is increasing determination in Netanyahu and Israeli leaders to dismantle the ‘Axis of Resistance’ that they see as an existential threat.

“Israel is certainly emboldened from the success in Gaza and Lebanon and has the advantage in the ongoing conflict. Many in Israel view Iran and its proxies as an existential threat after October 7. They have full backing of the United States and the Biden administration, which means they want to take the war to Iran. Depending on how things unfold now, the region is staring at a long and grinding war with serious political, economic, and strategic implications,” says Quamar.

Three, Iran appeared to misinterpret the Israeli public’s frustration with Netanyahu as disunity among Israelis. Even though Israel has been polarised more than ever for the past two years over Netanyahu’s far-right government and controversial decisions , such as the judicial overhaul, there is still broad unity regarding external threats and support for Netanyahu has also risen amid military successes in recent months.

More Israelis want the government to do “things that we didn’t do in the past, because we cannot be under ongoing attacks from all sides”, said Sima Shine, a former senior intelligence officer who helped guide Israel’s Iran strategy, to The New York Times.

“This is part of the miscalculation of all our enemies around. They don’t understand what Oct. 7 has done to the Israeli people, to their willingness to take much more risks," said Shine.

Even though Iran has a reputation for calibrating its operations to avoid escalation to direct war with Israel, it badly miscalculated this time “how much risk the Israelis —and Netanyahu in particular— are willing to take after October 7, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created”, said Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), to Sky News.

Will Israel’s response decide Middle East’s fate?

For now, Iran has stood down and the ball is in Israel’s court.

From all indications so far, Israel will hit Iran harder than in April where the response was more about sending a message. Israel struck an air defence unit in the vicinity of a nuclear facility to send the message that Israel can bypass Iranian air defence and get close to nuclear plants.

The nuclear facilities are, of course, are the ultimate targets for Israel, but Israel is not currently planning to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, said four Israeli officials to The Times.

If things escalate, however, then Israel may consider going for the jugular. A nuclear-armed Iran is an existential threat for Israel. Iran rejects the existence of the State of Israel and is committed to its destruction. An Iranian nuclear bomb is a red line that Israel cannot afford to let Iran cross.

“From Israel’s perspective, it cannot allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. There would certainly be strong pressure within Netanyahu’s cabinet to attack those nuclear facilities and essentially set back the Iranian nuclear weapons program, potentially for years,” said Malcolm Davis, a Senior Analyst for Defense Strategy at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) to CNN.

Even though Israel may not be in the mood to go all-out with strikes on nuclear facilities as of now, attacks on oil refineries and infrastructure are on the cards, according to The Times.

The exact nature of response depends on the extent of the support from the United States. The White House has said Iran will face “severe consequences” and the United States will work with Israel to impose the consequences.

Quamar, the Middle Eastern affairs expert at the JNU’s SIS, tells Firstpost that even though the Iranian military is strong, it is not a match for the Israeli-US combine.

“Israel is militarily stronger and has the full backing of the United States. This means that Iran is not in a position to get into a full-fledged war even though it has a strong military. It was this reality that made Iran wage a shadow war outside its territory through the ‘Axis of Resistance’, but that seems to be wavering now and that’s not an encouraging sign for Iran. Iran certainly has a strong military, but it would be difficult to fight the Israeli-US might without any external support,” says Quamar.