With Assad gone, Russia's military bases face an uncertain future

For two decades, Russian military bases in Syria were the crown jewels of President Vladimir Putin’s overseas ambitions.

Through military bases in Syria, Putin not just helped longtime Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad gain an upper hand in the civil war but also projected Russian power in the Mediterranean Sea and supported Russian operations in West Asia and Africa.

Then, late last month, as Syrian opposition forces launched a lightening offensive against Assad’s forces, the future of these bases came under question.

Now, less than two weeks later, as Assad settles in exile in Russia and opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) control Damascus, Russia appears to be reaching an uneasy arrangement with the opposition forces that it had bombed for much of the last decade — as recently as last week. As these forces now control the immediate vicinities of Russian bases in Syria, Putin has no option but to engage with Syria’s new rulers.

Syrian opposition controls areas around Russian bases

Russia has at least two military bases in Syria’s western region along the Mediterranean coast.

Russia runs the Khmeimim airbase in the Latakia city in the province of the same name and a naval base in Tartus city in the province of the same name.

Both Latakia and Tartus are under the control of Syrian opposition forces, according to Russia’s state-run TASS news agency.

While Syrian opposition forces control these two cities, they have not yet entered or attacked Russian military bases, as per the news agency.

A source told the agency that Russian military bases were “functioning normally” amid the control of surrounding territory by opposition forces.

Russia’s uneasy arrangement with Syrian opposition

Even though Russia supported Assad against the opposition forces for nearly a decade to the hilt, it has now been forced to reach an uneasy arrangement with the same forces it was at war with until last week.

Russian warplanes were bombing Syrian opposition forces to support the Assad regime as early as last week. Now, however, the tables have turned completely.

A Kremlin source told Russian media on Sunday that a deal has been reached with the opposition forces for the safety of Russian military bases.

The source said that Syrian opposition forces have agreed to guarantee the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in the country.

Even though a deal has reportedly been reached, there are signs that Russia is not completely trustful of Syria’s new rulers.

The War Zone has cited satellite imagery to report that Khmeimim airbase in Latakia has shown signs of a possible evacuation operation underway.

It reported that MiG-31 warplanes that had been forward-deployed to the airbase appear to have departed, but other Russian tactical warplanes appear to still be there.

Similarly, it reported that video footage has emerged that appears to show Russian ground forces in the region relocating from the airbase and possibly other places in the region to safer locations in southern Syria.

There are also reports of Russian ships leaving the port of Tartus amid fears that the base may be overrun by opposition forces.

Writing in The War Zone, Joseph Trevithick noted that sending warships away from the port suggests Russia is protecting its assets despite the agreement.

“Whether or not Russia expects to continue operating from Tartus in the long term, sending the ships to sea would be a prudent force protection measure given the current uncertainty in the country. The ships in port are a huge and relatively defenseless targets just sitting there. Even if the Kremlin has secured some security guarantees for major rebel groups, they vessels are still vulnerable to actors that would take advantage of the chaotic security situation,” noted Trevithick.

Separately, CNN Turk reported that Russia has requested Turkey of help in withdrawing forces from Syria.

Russian military presence ‘hangs by a thread’: Russian analyst

Highlighting the precarious situation in Syria, Russian influential analyst Rybar said that Russian military presence “in the Middle East region hangs by a thread”.

“What anyone decided in high offices is absolutely irrelevant on the ground,” said Rybar, suggesting that Russian forces in Syria had not taken the initiative to defend their positions in the absence of orders from Moscow, according to Reuters.

Rybar said that Russian warships had left the base at Tartus and taken up position off the coast for security reasons and the Khmeimim airbase had effectively been cut off after opposition forces took control of a nearby town.

Rybar went on to say that Russian positions at an oil facility in Homs, which opposition forces captured shortly before starting the final march to Damascus, also remain blocked because of opposition forces’ movements.

The Russian military bases at Latakia and Tartus are of great significance for Russia. Through the Tartus naval base, Russia projects power along the southern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato). It also essentially connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Black Sea, allowing a maritime route to connect Russian operations in Ukraine with activities in West Asia and Africa.

With Assad gone and Russian military bases essentially functioning at the mercy of opposition forces, Russian operations in the region risk being crippled.

The Russian government has, however, sought to downplay the risk.

“There is currently no serious threat to their security,” said the Russian Foreign Ministry on Sunday, according to Reuters.

The statement added that Russia was in contact with “all groups of the Syrian opposition”.