Colombo: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is about to take a plunge into the strategic calculus of the Indian Ocean in a major way as he engages with top Sri Lankan interlocutors on the third and the last leg which is also the most significant part of his three-nation tour of the Indian Ocean island states on Friday.
The bilateral and multilateral agenda of PM Modi’s talks in Sri Lanka is far bigger and more significant than it was in Seychelles and Mauritius, the two countries he has just visited before the Sri Lankan leg of his tour.
Sri Lanka is of vital importance for India in every sense – politically, diplomatically, strategically, economically and militarily. Ties between the two countries are age old and predate recorded history.
Unlike his bilateral engagements in Seychelles and Mauritius, Sri Lanka is going to be far more complex and challenging because of the Maldives factor. Sri Lanka is the hub for political and diplomatic activities pertaining to Maldives.
The United States and European Union nations do not have embassies in Maldives and their envoys based in Colombo are generally concurrently accredited to Maldives. The Maldives situation should thus be high on PM Modi’s agenda in his direct interaction with Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena.
It will largely be a conversation that will be low key and neither side is likely to go to town about it. PM Modi would like to know from Sirisena first hand his government’s views on the Maldivian crisis and be briefed by him on this.
Incidentally, Friday may well be a historic day, but not for the best reasons, as former Maldivian president Mohammed Nasheed, who was arrested on 22 February on terror charges, is likely to be sentenced.
Sri Lanka and Maldives are crucial lynch pins for India in order to keep maintain the Indian Ocean as a zone of peace. But this is increasingly proving to be a mirage as China has upped its ante in the region have done ever before.
Sri Lanka has loosened the Dragon’s grip on it. Maldives following suit would have been a double bonanza for India, but it is not happening. In fact, Maldives is in going in the opposite direction now. Sri Lanka has tremendous influence in Maldives after India and China. Incidentally, India, Sri Lanka and Maldives are already engaged in strategic cooperation.
That is why understanding Maldives from the Sri Lankan perspective is of utmost importance for India.
*The writer, Consulting editor for Firstpost, is currently in Sri Lanka. He tweets @Kishkindha.


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