 "British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits the DCS group distribution centre as part of a Conservative general election campaign event, in Banbury, UK, July 2, 2024. Reuters File")
As millions of voters exercised their franchise on Thursday to elect a new government in the UK, attention turned to key battlegrounds across the country. The seat that received maximum attention was the one in Yorkshire, Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton constituency.
At Richmond and Northallerton, Sunak faced challenges from Tom Wilson (Labour), Daniel Callaghan (Liberal Democrat), Kevin Foster (Green) and Lee Taylor (Reform UK).
Historically, no sitting UK prime minister has lost his or her seat. Sunak, defending a substantial majority of 27,210 votes from 2019, faced a critical test.
Multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) polls have suggested that the Conservatives might lose the general election, with one saying that the ruling party would plummet to just 53 seats in the 650-member House of Commons.
At least one MRP poll suggested that Sunak might lose the Richmond and Northallerton seat. However, this prediction was an outlier. Most other MRP surveys forecast a Conservative hold in this predominantly rural constituency.
Here, Sunak’s substantial manor house has earned him the nickname “the Maharajah of the Dales”. This is an overwhelmingly white voter constituency, with the 2021 Census recording only 778 Hindus, including the Sunak family.
How it became a Sunak stronghold
Sunak’s candidature in 2015 by the Conservative Party came as a surprise. The outgoing party MP William Hague had made a strong recommendation for Suna’s candidature from the Richmond and Northallerton constituency.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsSunak, a former hedge fund investor, faces local challenges including from Catterick Garrison, the Army’s largest barracks, especially against the backdrop of his early departure from D-Day events in France. He had to offer a public apology later on.
Also, a boundary change exercise saw his constituency expand recently to include some wards known to have Labour-leaning. Whether this will impact his prospects to return as an MP is uncertain.
What pre-poll surveys say
A widely acclaimed YouGov’s MRP survey has predicted Sunak to return as an MP from Richmond and Northallerton. Losing his seat would be considered dramatic. Some analysts have described this possibility as ‘Portillo moment’ — a reference to the 1997 election result when a Labour candidate unexpectedly defeated then-Cabinet minister Michael Portillo — for Sunak. The surveys don’t indicate this as a real possibility. But in a democratic election, the public may throw surprises.