Will Trudeau's unpopular minority government fall today? 10 things to know

Will Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau lose his government on Wednesday? His party is 41 short of the majority mark in the 338-member House of Commons of Canadian parliament. His government fell into a majority after Left-leaning Jagmeet Singh withdrew support of his party to the Liberal government.

Trudeau’s main rival Tory leader Pierre Poilievre brought a motion of no-confidence against the Liberal government in Canada’s parliament on Tuesday. This is the first major test of Trudeau’s increasingly unpopular minority government.

Here’s what will decide Trudeau’s fate as the Canada prime minister:

2. The 338-member Canada’s House of Commons will vote on the no-confidence motion on Wednesday following a debate on what is being viewed as a long-shot Conservative move.

3. In Canada’s Westminster parliamentary system, a ruling party must have the confidence of the House of Commons all the time during its tenure. This means Trudeau’s party must secure the support from a majority of members — 170.

4. The Liberals currently have 153 seats, the Conservatives 119, the Bloc Quebecois 33, and the News Democratic Party (NDP) 25.

5. The real rivalry lies in the popularity graphs of the two leaders — Trudeau and Poilievre. The Tory leader is far ahead in public opinion polls and appears to be itching for a snap election since Left leader Jagmeet Singh pulled out his NDP from the coalition agreement with Trudeau’s Liberal Party, leaving his government vulnerable.

6. Kicking off the debate, Poilievre railed against Trudeau, alleging that the government failed to address soaring costs of living, a housing crisis and crime, while doubling the national debt.

7. Poilievre vowed that if elected prime minister, he would bring “a common sense plan to axe the tax [on carbon emissions], build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime."

8. According to a recent Angus Reid poll, the Conservatives are well ahead of the Liberals, with 43 per cent of voting intention against 21 per cent for the ruling party. The NDP is at 19 per cent.

9. While Trudeau acknowledged that Canadians are facing “a really tough time” and that “people are hurting. People are having trouble paying for groceries, paying for rent, filling up the tank” and “are looking at change,” he criticised Poilievre for suggesting “the best way to get through these difficult times is to cut services and programmes that Canadians rely on”.

10. Liberals are, however, holding on. The no-confidence motion against the Trudeau government is unlikely to succeed as he has managed the support from two smaller political factions, which said they would vote with the Liberals.

11. Trudeau swept to power in 2015, and has won two subsequent elections in 2019 and 2021. Had his deal with the NDP not failed, his government would have been guaranteed to stay in power until late 2025. Now, with popularity soaring in opinion polls, Poilievre has vowed to keep trying and looking for opportunities to bring down the Trudeau government.