Will Nawaz Sharif dare to do a Musharraf on Narendra Modi?

It is not just an invite that Prime Minister-designate Narendra Modi has sent to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to attend his swearing-in on 26 May. It is a diplomatic gauntlet that Modi has thrown to Sharif. But the million dollar question is: what happens if Sharif were to pick up this gauntlet? Though we will know soon, possibly by Friday evening, whether Sharif accepts the Modi invite, one result is certain. Modi has put his foreign policy on the front burner when everybody expected him to focus on domestic economic situation instead. Whichever way you see it – Sharif coming to India or not on Modi’s invitation – the political discourse in India has veered to India’s foreign policy rather than issues that affect the man on the street directly. The fact that the Nawaz Sharif’s administration has not taken a call on Modi’s invite, for or against, even after more than 24 hours shows that the Sharif government feels bamboozled by Modi’s out-of-the-box idea which is not only a bold move but an unprecedented diplomatic initiative in the annals of India’s post-independence history. Pakistan has always been known for being several steps ahead of India in fighting a war of brownie points before the media. Modi’s invite appears to have torpedoed the Pakistani establishment, both political and military. Sharif has two options. One, to do nothing about it and play a tit-for-tat diplomacy with India by asking his High Commissioner in India to do the honours on his behalf, precisely what India did last year in response to Sharif’s invite for India for his installation a year ago. But this would be a conventional route and would not be a ‘befitting’ response to modi’s invite. In other words, Pakistan would be on the back foot when it comes to scoring brownie points, an area of specialization for Pakistan. The other option is much bolder: accept Modi’s invite and turn the tables on India, something that former Pakistani ruler Pervez Musharraf, who combined the powers of civil government as well as the military establishment of his country, did almost thirteen years ago. This is more like the Pakistani DNA. Why? If that were to indeed happen and Sharif were to travel to New Delhi for attending Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, it would hijack the very event completely and turn it into an India-Pakistan affair. This is despite the fact that all other six SAARC nations would be represented at Modi’s swearing-in. The Ministry of External Affairs has already slotted a banquet by the Prime Minister to be hosted in honour of the SAARC leaders in Hyderabad House on 26 May and one-to-one interactions with each leader the next day. Since Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will be unavailable (she is visiting Japan on 25-26 May), she is sending her Speaker who would be arriving in New Delhi on 25 May. [caption id=“attachment_1538425” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Will Nawaz Sharif dare to do a Musharraf on Modi? Reuters[/caption] Moreover, this will deflect the world’s attention from Modi’s installation to an India-Pakistan ‘summit’ even though Modi will not, and cannot, have any substantive dialogue with his Pakistani counterpart during this trip. This will present Sharif with a whale of an opportunity to do an Agra on Modi. Obviously, Modi won’t be unaware of what Pervez Musharraf did to the Vajpayee government 13 years ago. The Agra Summit between Musharraf and Vajpayee helped the former in his transition from the weird title of “CEO” of Pakistan to the President of Pakistan and the Vajpayee government had facilitated the General in getting his new-found recognition as President of Pakistan. Modi’s invite is the top most pending foreign policy decision awaited from Islamabad for over 24 hours. The Nawaz Sharif must have grappled with several do’s and don’ts as well as various options. The first and foremost strategic objective for the Nawaz Sharif government would be not only to extricate itself from the Catch-22 situation that the Modi invite has triggered but also to come up with a solid brownie point that deflates the Modi initiative. I feel that the Sharif government would have considered the following scenarios. Scenario 1: Nawaz Sharif does not accept the Modi invite and instead send a representative for Modi’s swearing-in. In this scenario, he would have to first decide the level of his government’s representation. If he determines to play the Modi gamble but not by visiting New Delhi himself, he can ask the India-born President Mamnoon Hussain to do the honours in his place. The argument in support of such a decision would be that Sharif conveys his intent to normalise relations with India, even though recognising the fact that India had sent its High Commissioner to Pakistan for attending his own installation a year ago, an event which was uncharitably dubbed by the then Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid as a “local event”. On the flip side, this would mean that Pakistan is eating a humble pie. This would give little political leverage to Nawaz Sharif. Scenario 2: Sharif plays by the rule book and settles down for tit-for-tat diplomacy and asks his High Commissioner to attend Modi’s installation, implying that it is a “local event”. It is quite probable that Sharif may opt for neither of the two options. Something is brewing in Islamabad; nay, Rawalpindi! The ultimate boss is going to be the other Sharif – General Raheel Sharif, Pakistan’s Army Chief. Sharif may, after all, match Modi’s out-of-the-box initiative with his own out-of-the-box response. Who knows? We will know by Friday evening. The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.