Will killing of 'moderate' Haniyeh give Hamas a hardline leader again? History shows...

Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader assassinated in Iran on Wednesday (July 31), was a tough-talking face of the group’s international diplomacy.

However, underneath that image, Haniyeh was seen as a moderate compared to the more hardline members of Hamas in Gaza. He was known for his relatively pragmatic approach within the Palestinian group’s ranks.

With his death, reportedly by an air strike, questions around his successor have emerged. One concern is whether his death will pave way for a hardliner to fill the void.

Assassination and rise of extremist elements

Historically, the assassinations of leaders within Hamas have often led to their replacement by more extremist elements.

Consider the assassination of Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, one of the co-founders of Hamas and its spiritual leader, in 2004. His death led to widespread protests marked a significant escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. According to a report by Al Jazeera, just four months before he was killed, Yassin had offered a ceasefire to Israel.

Yassin’s successor was another one of Hamas’ co-founders: Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi. According to Israel’s claims, Rantisi was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of people who died in suicide bombings and other attacks. He very frequently urged militant strikes against Israeli targets. Once, he condoned the murder of Israeli children, if that would secure the future of young Palestinians.

He served as the top boss of Hamas for just 25 days in 2004. That year, Rantisi had also proposed a 10-year truce with Israel. Like Yassin, Rantisi was also killed by Israeli helicopter gunships.

Concurrently, after Yassin’s death, Nizar Rayan became a top Islamic cleric within the militant organisation. He was widely regarded as one of Hamas’s most hardline political leaders and had called for renewed suicide bombings inside Israel. He was assassinated in 2009.

Return of hardliners after Haniyeh?

Meanwhile, Haniyeh was named the leader of Hamas after Rantisi’s death. His appointment was kept a secret due to the multiple assassinations of the group’s leaders. Haniyeh’s rise to the top spot was a sort of anomaly in the pattern of succession where leaders, each more extremist than the previous, rose to the top.

Now, Haniyeh’s death could potentially empower hardliners again. Among those reported likely to succeed him, is Yahya Sinwar. He is known for his uncompromising stance and militant background.

It is also likely to impact the ceasefire negotiations– where Israel and Hamas were said to be closer than ever before to a ceasefire– that have been facilitated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar.

With inputs from agencies