Why Sudan's war reaching its second-biggest city may be a turning point

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) on Monday said that up to 300,000 individuals have fled the escalating conflict on a new front in Sudan, according to a Reuters report. Over the past eight months, paramilitary forces have been engaged in intense battles with the army, and recently, they made significant advances into Wad Madani, a city crucial for displaced populations and aid distribution during the ongoing conflict. The capture of Wad Madani, situated approximately 170 km southeast of Khartoum, the capital, in El Gezira state—a vital agricultural region in a nation grappling with increasing food shortages—marks a potential turning point in the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) expansion across western and central Sudan. Since the outbreak of clashes just four days ago, an estimated 250,000 to 300,000 people have fled El Gezira, as stated by the IOM. The RSF, initially in a power-sharing arrangement with the army and civilians following the 2019 ousting of former leader Omar al-Bashir, has since undergone internal conflicts. In 2021, the RSF and the army staged a coup together but later clashed over an internationally supported political transition plan. Videos shared by the RSF depict their fighters driving through Wad Madani’s streets in pickup trucks and crossing a contested bridge over the Blue Nile, which they had been fighting for with the army. Unverified footage also shows RSF fighters alongside Coptic priests, who claimed they couldn’t escape the city and sought assistance from the RSF. The authenticity of these videos has not been confirmed by Reuters, and the army has not issued any statements. Local pro-democracy activists report that the RSF has established checkpoints throughout Wad Madani, engaging in looting homes and cars, with an absence of army or police presence. This ongoing conflict between the army and the RSF has displaced more than 7 million people, caused extensive damage to the capital, led to a humanitarian crisis, and resulted in ethnically motivated violence in Darfur. In Khartoum, the RSF faces accusations of looting homes, committing sexual assaults, and carrying out arbitrary killings and detentions. Families fleeing While half a million people had sought refuge in the wider El Gezira state, at least 85,000 were living inside Wad Madani, with more relying on the city for healthcare, aid, and government services that began shutting down in recent days. “Fleeing again will completely deplete our resources,” said Heba Abdelrahim, who had come to Wad Madani with her family from Khartoum. “Thinking logically we will wait until we don’t have any other choice.” Several neighboring families had left together on a large truck, she said. Abdelrahim said gunshots could be heard while army warplanes were flying overhead, with air strikes heard before sundown. The United States, which on Sunday urged the RSF not to attack Wad Madani, has with Saudi Arabia led mediation efforts to broker a ceasefire in Sudan, without visible progress. While regional mediators IGAD said the army and RSF agreed to a ceasefire last week, both sides quickly distanced themselves from the claim. Taking control of central Wad Madani, a hub for national highways, would give the RSF greater control of trade and allow it to hobble army supply routes, said researcher Reem Abbas, a fellow at the Tahrir Institute. “This gives them time to organise themselves, and they can start going east … They will continue to hold people hostage, putting pressure on the communities, on the army, and the international community,” she said. The RSF in a statement said it sought to oust Bashir loyalists in Wad Madani and pre-empt an attack by the army, which it accused of racial killings and indiscriminate air strikes. Pro-democracy group Emergency Lawyers said the RSF on Monday killed two people when it raided Rufaa hospital north of Wad Madani. Separately, the group criticised racially-motivated killings and torture in El Gezira state, and said at least 10 people had been killed by air strikes in RSF-controlled Nyala in recent days. With inputs from agencies