Why killing of Hamas, Hezbollah leaders is a blow to Khamenei’s legacy

The recent escalations in West Asia, particularly the assassination of key leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah, raise significant questions about the future of these groups and the implications for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. With both terror groups suffering substantial losses, Khamenei’s stature and the legacy he envisions for himself appear increasingly vulnerable.

Big assassinations

Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks that ignited the Gaza war and heightened violence in West Asia, Israel has focused on eliminating key leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia-party supporting Hamas. The assassination of Yahya Sinwar on Thursday, Hamas’s top leader, marks the latest kill by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).

Among the significant figures lost are Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated on July 13 in Tehran, playing a crucial role in Hamas’s foreign relations and negotiation efforts advocating for a Palestinian state along pre-1967 borders while rejecting formal recognition of Israel. Another key figure, Saleh al-Aruri, who was killed on January 2 in Beirut, co-founded Hamas’s military wing and served as the chief negotiator. The status of Mohammed Deif, the commander-in-chief of the Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades, remains disputed, with Israel claiming his death in August, which Hamas denies. Additionally, Marwan Issa, announced dead by the IDF on March 18, was seen as a mastermind behind the October 7 attacks.

Hezbollah leaders have also suffered significant losses. Hassan Nasrallah, killed in an airstrike on September 28, had been the public face of Hezbollah for 32 years, orchestrating numerous attacks against Israel. Ibrahim Qubaisi, recognized for his expertise in missile technology, died on September 24 in Dahieh. Other notable casualties include Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wabi, both killed in a missile attack on September 21, leading elite forces within Hezbollah. Fuad Shukr, a long-time member and key military figure, was killed on July 30, while commanders Mohammed Nasser and Taleb Abdallah were killed in strikes on July 3 and June 12, respectively. Wissam al-Tawil, the deputy head of a unit within Hezbollah’s elite Redwan force, was killed on January 8. Lastly, Suhail Hussein Husseini, Hezbollah’s logistics and budget chief, was reported killed in an airstrike on October 8.

Khamenei’s aspirations

Ayatollah Khamenei has long positioned himself as a champion of the “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition of groups, including Hezbollah and Hamas, opposing Western influence and promoting anti-Zionism. His vision includes fostering a united front against Israel and Western powers while expanding Iran’s geopolitical reach in the region. Over the years, Khamenei has invested significant resources in these groups, viewing them as critical proxies in his broader strategy to enhance Iran’s influence.

However, the recent upheaval has resulted in the deaths of prominent figures such as Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah. These losses not only undermine the operational capabilities of these groups but also threaten the narrative Khamenei has constructed around his leadership. For Khamenei, the resilience of Hamas and Hezbollah has been a source of legitimacy, bolstering his claim as a leader of a powerful and united Islamic front.

Leadership vacuum

The assassination of senior leaders creates a vacuum in leadership within both Hamas and Hezbollah. These groups have historically relied on charismatic leaders to maintain cohesion and operational continuity. Khamenei’s influence has, in part, stemmed from his association with these figures. The deaths of leaders like Sinwar and Nasrallah may lead to internal power struggles diverting attention and resources away from confronting common adversaries.

Moreover, the rise of new leadership often comes with a shift in ideology and strategy. New leaders may not adhere to Khamenei’s vision, leading to fragmentation within these groups. The loss of experienced leaders raises questions about the long-term viability of Hamas and Hezbollah as effective resistance movements. Their struggles for new direction could weaken their capabilities, thereby diminishing Iran’s leverage in the region.

Impact on Iran’s regional strategy

Khamenei’s strategic approach to West Asia, or the Middle East, has hinged on the idea that Iran can shape events through its proxies. The operational capacity of Hamas and Hezbollah has been crucial for this strategy. However, as these groups face existential threats, Khamenei’s ability to project power through them is compromised. The diminished capacity of these groups to engage in military operations could embolden Israel and its allies making it harder for Khamenei to maintain a narrative of strength.

Shia resistance movement under threat

The broader Shia resistance movement, of which Hezbollah and Hamas are key components, is now facing significant challenges. The recent losses highlight the vulnerabilities of Iran’s allies in the region. Khamenei has attempted to unify various Shia factions under a single banner, but the disarray within Hezbollah and Hamas poses a direct threat to this vision. If these groups falter, it could embolden rival Sunni factions and undermine Iran’s influence in predominantly Sunni regions, like Iraq and Syria.

The ideological basis of the Shia resistance movement may undergo scrutiny. Khamenei’s resistance model has traditionally portrayed Shia groups as leaders in the fight against Sunni extremism and Western imperialism. However, the loss of important leaders might prompt a reevaluation of the effectiveness of Khamenei’s strategy.

Domestic implications for Khamenei

The fallout from these developments may not be limited to regional geopolitics. Khamenei’s standing within Iran could be jeopardised if the public perceives him as incapable of safeguarding Iran’s interests abroad. The Iranian populace is increasingly aware of the costs associated with supporting foreign militant groups, especially amid economic hardships exacerbated by sanctions and internal governance issues. Internal dissent could further weaken Khamenei’s authority, potentially leading to calls for a shift in Iran’s foreign policy, steering the country away from the aggressive stance that has characterised Khamenei’s tenure.

A legacy in jeopardy

As the situation unfolds, it is evident that Ayatollah Khamenei’s aspirations for a powerful and influential Iran are being challenged by the very dynamics he sought to manipulate. The recent assassinations of top leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah expose the vulnerabilities of these groups and threaten the narrative of strength Khamenei has cultivated over decades.

With both regional and domestic challenges mounting, Khamenei’s legacy hangs in the balance. The implications of these developments could redefine the geopolitical landscape of West Asia, reshaping Iran’s role and the future of the Shia resistance movement. The clock is ticking for Khamenei whose ability to wade through this tumultuous period will be critical in determining whether he can retain his stature or if history will view him as a leader who presided over the decline of the very legacy he wished to establish.