Why Iran polls are not only about electing its next president

After losing President Ebrahim Raisi to a helicopter crash on May 19, Iran has time till July 8 to elect its next president. Its constitution says that the nation should have a president within 50 days of the death of the incumbent. Iran has announced its presidential election for June 28. This means that the Iranian presidential election could be a routine affair, but only it is not. It involves several issues that may have a wider impact on Iran and the entire West Asia.

Iran has been in the grip of conservative leadership

Iran has been under the tight leash of its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A president elected by the Iranian voters is by rule a candidate approved by a panel controlled by the Ayatollah — a title Ali Khamenei was given during his elevation as the Supreme Leader following the death of his father Ayatollah Ruhollah Khamenei in 1989. This was necessary as Ali Khamenei was not a cleric when he was chosen by the Assembly of Experts (a cleric council in Iran) to succeed Ruhollah Khamenei as the Supreme Leader.

Technically, an Iranian president is an adviser to the Ayatollah. Five presidents have worked under Ali Khamenei, who played an active role during the 1979 Iranian revolution that established the Islamic rule in the country. However, observers say that the rise of Raisi in 2021 to the post of the president indicated a change in the Iranian power circles.

Since the arrival of Raisi, a hardline cleric and close ally of Ali Khamenei, conservatives have strengthened their grip on every part of the Islamic Republic. With the constitution giving only 50 days to elect the president, the death of Raisi created a problem of choice for the parties eyeing the post.

Former president, former speaker declared unfit to contest

Iran has a panel called the Guardian Council that screens and ratifies candidates who register themselves for state legislatures, parliament and presidential elections. When Iran announced to hold the presidential election after Raisi’s death, 80 candidates, including four women, registered themselves for the polls.

The Guardian Council, however, rejected all but six candidates, who are now allowed to contest Iran’s presidential election. Among the rejected are former President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, who was considered a strong popular contender.

It is not clear why a former president was found ineligible for running again for the same post or a former parliament speaker, well-versed with the politics of the country, was found unfit to contest for the top executive post in the Islamic Republic. The Iranian constitution has just three conditions — the candidate must be an Iranian national, who is religious and a politician.

Those remaining are considered hardliners compared to Ahmedinejad, who in his two terms as president took confrontational stand with the West, particularly the US, and was vocal with his anti-Israel views as he denied the Holocaust and called for the destruction of the Jewish state.

Could women have contested the Iranian presidential election?

Though six women registered themselves for the Iranian presidential election, it was never in doubt that they wouldn’t get a chance to contest. They generated public debate, more outside than within Iran despite strong anti-hijab protests in several big cities of the country a couple of years ago.

The Guardian Council does not approve a woman candidate to contest the Iranian presidential election. There is a debate around the word used in the Iranian law — Rijal. Most experts interpret as religious and political men — the requisite eligibility for contesting the polls.

A minority opinion is that the Persian meaning of Rijal is different from the Arabic meaning, and in this sense the word means a person in Iran and not only men. In any case, Iranian leadership does not favour women to be elected to the president’s office. So, the Guardian Council rejected their registration at the screening stage itself. No woman has been allowed to contest any of the 13 presidential elections (including the upcoming one).

Who will be the next Iran president?

One of the following six candidates will finally be elected as the president of Iran in the June 28 election.

• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — At 62, Ghalibaf has been the Speaker of Iranian parliament for the past four years. He has run for president three times, losing twice — 2005 and 2013, and withdrawing his candidacy in 2021 to support Raisi. With a background in the Iranian military, he also holds the record for being the longest-serving Mayor of Tehran — 12 years.

• Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi — The 53-year-old ENT surgeon, Hashemi is a four-time member of parliament. He was recently Raisi’s deputy. Contesting against Raisi in the 2021 presidential election, he finished fourth with less than a million votes.

• Saeed Jalili — He was the key figure during Iran’s negotiation with international agencies over its nuclear programme, leading the country’s nuclear negotiation team for four years. At 58, Jalili is a member of the Expediency Discernment Council and a former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

• Masoud Pezeshkian — The 70-year-old five-time MP is the second doctor among the approved candidates — a heart surgeon. Pezeshkian has served as Iran’s health minister for four years. A rare brand of a politician in Iran, he is known for his straightforwardness. He has openly criticised Iran’s political environment and corruption, and publicly condemned the government’s handling of the Mahsa Amini case (hijab protests). This makes him the only official candidate with a reformist leaning.

• Mostafa Pourmohammadi — He is the only cleric among the six approved candidates. Pourmohammadi is a conservative politician widely known for his role in the “Death Committee”, the panel that ordered strict punishment for protesters during the anti-hijab movement.

• Alireza Zakani — Incumbent Tehran mayor for three years, the 59-year-old Zakani entered politics through the Basij, a paramilitary militia wing of the Revolutionary Guards. He has also served as an MP for four years.

What about the Supreme Leader?

Raisi’s death has also led to speculation about the potential successor of Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran. Ali Khamenei, 85, has not endorsed a candidate to be his successor.

To many, Raisi was a suitable candidate and was said to have considerable support in the Assembly of Experts, which decides the next Supreme Leader. Given the age of Ali Khameinei and that the Assembly of Experts has a tenure of eight years, it is possible that the panel will get to decide the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

The Supreme Leader, who wields the real power in Iran. All government and social institutions are under his control. The constitution provides enough power to the president but actually he does the Supreme Leader’s bidding.

So, it doesn’t really matter who becomes the next Iranian president, the country’s domestic or foreign policy is unlikely to change until Ali Khamenei’s successor takes the office. This is where the Assembly of Experts becomes the key player.

Iran held its general election on March 1 this year, electing its parliament also 88 members to the Assembly of Experts. A 93-year-old cleric Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani was later chosen as the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Now, with Raisi gone, Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei is said to be a strong contender to succeed his father whenever that election happens. To step into his father’s shoes, Mojtaba would need the support of two-thirds of the Assembly of Experts. If that happens, it would cement the hereditary succession rule in Iran — something Ruhollah Khamenei fought against the Shah of Iran, when he brought down the kingship in the country and created an Islamic Republic there.