 "Why India will be watching Erdogan's visit to Pakistan")
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has embarked on a four-day tour of three Asian countries with Pakistan as his final stop after visits to Malaysia and Indonesia. While the visit signifies deepening bilateral ties between Ankara and Islamabad, it carries broader geopolitical implications that India cannot afford to ignore.
Turkey-Pakistan relations
Erdogan’s visit comes at a time when Turkey and Pakistan are strengthening their ties in many areas, especially defence and counter-terrorism. Recently, Pakistan signed a deal to buy Turkish naval vessels, further boosting their defence partnership. In January, the two countries also held the Turgutreis-XI naval exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean, showing their increasing military coordination.
Turkey has played a significant role in enhancing Pakistan’s military capabilities through defence cooperation, technology transfers and joint production agreements. The collaboration spans multiple areas, including naval shipbuilding, drone technology and arms sales. Turkey has supplied Pakistan with T129 ATAK helicopters, MILGEM-class corvettes and various defence systems, strengthening Islamabad’s military infrastructure. Additionally, Turkish defence firms, such as ASELSAN and Roketsan, have engaged in joint ventures with Pakistan to develop advanced weaponry. This partnership not only deepens strategic ties but also enhances Pakistan’s indigenous defence production, making it less reliant on Western suppliers.
Another sign of their growing security cooperation is the second round of Pakistan-Turkey Counter-Terrorism Consultations, which took place in Islamabad after six years. The discussions focussed on key issues like stopping terror financing, preventing radicalisation and controlling online extremism. Both countries share similar security challenges—Pakistan is fighting insurgency in Balochistan, while Turkey is dealing with Kurdish separatists. This common ground has brought them closer in their efforts to tackle terrorism together.
The renewed focus on counter-terrorism cooperation between Turkey and Pakistan is a key aspect India will analyse carefully. Pakistan has long been accused of harbouring terror networks that operate against India. India has consistently advocated for a stringent global stance on terror financing and radicalisation, areas that Pakistan has struggled with in the past.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsIf Turkey plays a role in helping Pakistan enhance its counter-terrorism mechanisms, it could lead to positive outcomes. However, if cooperation extends to shielding elements that India considers threats, tensions may rise.
Turkey’s strategic outreach and Brics aspirations
One of the biggest changes in Turkey’s foreign policy is its effort to join Brics. Erdogan’s speech at the 79th UN General Assembly in September did not mention Kashmir, which is a major shift from his earlier speeches that often called for UN action on the issue. This change seems to be part of Turkey’s larger plan to strengthen its ties with emerging economic groups while carefully managing its relations with India.
For India, Turkey’s possible entry into Brics has both benefits and challenges. On one hand, it might push Erdogan to soften his pro-Pakistan stance to fit in with the group’s existing members, especially India.
On the other hand, Turkey’s Nato membership and growing ties with China could create complications within Brics. India will be watching closely to see how Turkey balances its position in Brics and whether it continues to support Pakistan on issues like Kashmir.
Earlier in response to Turkey’s continuous overture towards Pakistan and needless meddling in India’s internal affairs over Kashmir, India strengthened its ties with Turkey’s regional rivals, including Armenia, Cyprus and Greece.
For years, Erdogan was one of the few world leaders to raise Kashmir at the UNGA, often echoing Pakistan’s narrative. However, his 2024 address omitted the issue entirely, signalling a shift in priorities. Since 2019, his references to Kashmir have gradually softened, moving from UN-mandated resolutions to general calls for peace between India and Pakistan. Last year’s UNGA speech by Erdogan suggests a possible recalibration of Turkey’s approach.
Several factors could explain this shift. Turkey’s growing economic ambitions, particularly its outreach to Brics and closer engagement with India, may be driving a more pragmatic foreign policy. Additionally, Ankara’s evolving stance could be influenced by its economic challenges and the need to cultivate stronger trade ties with India, a major player in the global economy.
Defence ties and strategic concerns for India
While Turkey’s softening stance on Kashmir may seem like a positive development for India, its defence ties with Pakistan remain a concern. The sale of Turkish naval vessels to Pakistan and joint military exercises reflect a deepening strategic alignment. Turkey’s defence industry has also provided UAV technology to Pakistan, which could be leveraged in asymmetric warfare scenarios.
India, which has been strengthening its own naval and aerial capabilities, will monitor these developments closely. The Indian Navy’s modernisation efforts, including acquiring new aircraft carriers and submarines, are partly in response to regional shifts in military power. Any advancements in Turkey-Pakistan defence cooperation will be scrutinised for potential security implications.
Erdogan’s visit also follows a broader pattern of increased diplomatic activity for Pakistan. In recent months, Islamabad has hosted several high-profile leaders, including Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. These visits are part of Pakistan’s effort to project itself as a key player in regional geopolitics, particularly as it grapples with economic and security challenges.
From India’s perspective, Pakistan’s ability to attract diplomatic attention, particularly from countries with strategic clout like Turkey, is a factor that New Delhi will assess in terms of its long-term impact on regional stability.
Beyond Pakistan, Erdogan’s visit to Malaysia and Indonesia reflects Turkey’s growing ambitions in Asia. His latest UNGA speech in September 2024 criticised the West-dominated global order and called for reforms in multilateral institutions, aligning with his broader vision of a multipolar world. Turkey’s engagement with Asean, the Indian Ocean Rim Association and Brics suggests a strategic shift toward emerging economies.
For India, this presents both challenges and opportunities. While a more Asia-focussed Turkey may seek deeper economic ties with India, its parallel engagements with Pakistan necessitate caution. The trajectory of Turkey’s relations with India will depend on whether Ankara continues its defence partnerships with Pakistan or seeks to balance its regional alignments.
Turkey’s arms export ban to India
Erdogan’s silence on Kashmir does not signal a complete thaw in India-Turkey ties. Turkey has reportedly prohibited any defence sales to India following India’s cancellation of a major shipbuilding contract with Turkey’s Anadolu Shipyard, part of the TAIS consortium. The $2 billion deal involved the construction of five fleet support ships for the Indian Navy at Hindustan Shipyard with Turkish technology and engineering support.
Instead, India opted to proceed with the project locally without Turkish involvement. While India officially cited its policy of boosting domestic shipbuilding capacity, the decision is believed to be influenced by Turkey’s pro-Pakistan stance.
Why India will be watching closely
Erdogan’s visit to Pakistan is more than just a routine diplomatic engagement. It is a reflection of shifting geopolitical currents, from Turkey’s aspirations for Brics membership to its evolving stance on Kashmir. While Erdogan’s omission of Kashmir at the UNGA signals a possible recalibration of Turkey’s foreign policy, its deepening defence ties with Pakistan remain a concern for India.
India’s response will likely be multi-pronged. It will continue strengthening its own defence capabilities while engaging diplomatically with Turkey to ensure that Ankara does not drift too far into Pakistan’s strategic orbit. At the same time, India will leverage its position within Brics and other global platforms to shape Turkey’s future alignments.
In a rapidly evolving global order, where strategic partnerships are constantly shifting, Erdogan’s visit to Pakistan serves as a critical moment for India to assess, adapt and respond to the changing dynamics in South Asia and beyond.
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
