Why timing of Haniyeh's killing in Iran puts its new president in a big spot

In a swift turn of events, Iran has encountered profound challenges on two key fronts coinciding with the recent inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian. Within just 48 hours, Israel—considered Iran’s staunch adversary—executed strategic military operations that have left Tehran reeling. An Israeli airstrike targeted a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of Hamas in Tehran have not only demonstrated Israel’s tactical prowess but also signaled a potential shift in the geopolitical balance of the Middle East.

Just days into his presidency, Pezeshkian faces a daunting crisis that challenges his leadership and tests Iran’s influence in the region. The assassination of Haniyeh, allegedly carried out by Israel on Iranian soil, has put Iran in a precarious position and directly challenges Pezeshkian’s ability to navigate these troubled waters. Coupled with Israel’s decisive airstrike on Hezbollah in Beirut, these developments highlight vulnerabilities in Iran’s strategic defences and demand an immediate response from the new president. The timing of these events has intensified the pressure on Pezeshkian to assert Iran’s strength and demonstrate that the nation can stand up to its adversaries. This early test for Pezeshkian raises critical questions about Iran’s strategic capabilities and its role in the Middle East’s shifting power dynamics.

In a twist of fate, Haniyeh was in Tehran specifically for Pezeshkian’s inauguration, which happened on Tuesday. The new Iranian president even had a meeting with Haniyeh, likely making it one of the final meetings of the Hamas political bureau head.

Decisive action against Hezbollah

Beirut airstrike

Israel’s airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, which resulted in the death of Hezbollah’s senior commander Fuad Shukr, represents a calculated military manoeuvre with far-reaching implications. The strike, conducted in retaliation for a cross-border rocket attack attributed to Hezbollah, highlights Israel’s commitment to maintaining its security and its willingness to take bold actions against perceived threats.

The precision of the airstrike showcases Israel’s intelligence capabilities and its ability to target high-ranking officials within militant organisations. Fuad Shukr, a close aide to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, played a crucial role in orchestrating attacks against Israel. His elimination sends a clear message to Hezbollah and its Iranian backers that Israel’s reach extends beyond its borders challenging the sanctuaries they rely upon.

The strike resonated strongly both domestically and internationally. In Israel, the public, reeling from the tragic deaths of 12 youths in the prior attack, saw the airstrike as a justified response, reinforcing national resolve and government accountability. Internationally, the operation garnered support from allies including the United States, which reiterated its commitment to Israel’s security against Iran-backed threats.

While the airstrike drew condemnation from Hezbollah’s allies, Israel’s careful handling of the situation, including signals of restraint to avoid further escalation, demonstrated diplomatic acumen. By balancing military action with diplomatic channels Israel managed to achieve its objectives without plunging the region into an all-out war.

The airstrike not only debilitated Hezbollah’s leadership but also exposed vulnerabilities within Iran’s strategic network across the Middle East. Hezbollah, long seen as Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, now faces increased pressure to recalibrate its operations in light of heightened Israeli vigilance.

With Hezbollah’s leadership momentarily destabilised, Iran’s ability to project power through its proxy networks faces setbacks. This scenario challenges Tehran’s broader strategy of maintaining a unified front against Israel potentially straining its alliances with other regional actors like Hamas and Syria.

By successfully neutralising a key Hezbollah figure, Israel reinforces its deterrence capabilities, signalling to adversaries that aggression will be met with decisive responses. This strategic edge not only safeguards Israel’s borders but also strengthens its position in future diplomatic negotiations.

Iran’s dual setback

While Israel’s actions mark a significant triumph, Iran grapples with setbacks on two critical fronts, both in Beirut and within its own borders in Tehran.

The Tehran assassination

In a separate but equally impactful development, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of Hamas, was killed in Tehran under mysterious circumstances. This incident, occurring just after Iran’s presidential inauguration, represents a severe blow to Iran’s efforts to solidify its position as a leader of the Resistance axis against Israel.

The killing of Haniyeh, allegedly by operatives linked to Israel, marks a rare occurrence of direct confrontation within Iran’s own territory. This act challenges Tehran’s perceived invulnerability and raises questions about its ability to protect key allies within its borders.

The assassination has sparked outrage among Iran’s leadership, who now face mounting pressure to respond effectively. President Pezeshkian’s earlier vows of unwavering support for Resistance forces are now tested as Iran’s credibility as a protector of its allies is questioned. The incident exposes potential weaknesses in Iran’s security apparatus, potentially fuelling internal discontent and further complicating its foreign policy objectives.

The dual losses in Beirut and Tehran expose the vulnerabilities within Iran’s extensive network of proxies and allies across the region. As Iran contends with these setbacks, its ability to orchestrate coordinated resistance against Israel and its allies faces significant challenges.

With Hezbollah and Hamas leaders targeted, Iran’s proxy alliances face increased scrutiny and pressure. This situation may lead to internal discord and weaken the cohesion of the so-called Resistance axis potentially prompting a reevaluation of strategic priorities among Iran’s allies.

Iran’s standing in the region may suffer as it struggles to project strength and maintain influence amid these setbacks. As Israel capitalises on its recent successes, Iran’s regional isolation may deepen complicating its efforts to assert dominance in the Middle East.