Why fall of Bashar-al Assad in Syria threatens Russia across the Mediterranean, Africa and beyond

Russia’s approach to geopolitics is becoming much more complicated, like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube instead of a basic math forlula like the Pythagoras Theorem. The situation in Ukraine was already a mess and now the crisis in Syria has come at a bad time for Russia. The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria has shaken the world, leading to a shift in global power dynamics. For years, Syria was a key ally for Russia, offering important military bases and a strong presence in the Middle East. With Assad’s regime now falling apart, Russia risks losing a vital foothold. This could weaken Russia’s influence not only in Syria but also in the Mediterranean, North Africa and Central Africa, regions where it has worked hard to grow its alliances and military power.

Strategic importance of Syria for Russia

Since Russia got involved in Syria’s conflict in 2015, it has used its military bases there to increase its influence and project power across the Mediterranean and other regions. These bases give Russia a strong presence in the area, helping it protect its interests and challenge Western influence. The naval base at Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia became central to Russia’s military strategy. These bases served as logistical hubs for Russian operations, offering vital refuelling and resupply points for missions in North Africa and the Mediterranean. In addition to their practical military value, these bases also served as symbols of Russia’s return to the global stage demonstrating its ability to maintain a significant military presence far from its borders.

The loss of Assad’s regime puts all of this in jeopardy. Without these bases, Russia will face significant logistical challenges in maintaining its operations in regions like Africa where it has worked hard to establish strong military ties.

Threat to Russia’s military presence in Africa

Russia’s influence in Africa has grown steadily over the past decade driven by military support and political alliances. Moscow has deployed military contractors, particularly from the private company Wagner Group, to countries like Mali, Niger and the Central African Republic, where Russian support has helped to shore up fragile regimes. Russia’s military involvement in these countries has been built on the ability to use Syria as a critical resupply point.

With the loss of the Syrian bases, Russia faces enormous difficulties in sustaining its operations in Africa. These logistical problems are compounded by the potential loss of political confidence in Moscow’s ability to protect its African allies. According to The Globe and Mail, if Assad’s fall is perceived as a sign that Russia’s military backing is unreliable, leaders in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger could begin to question their partnership with Moscow. The psychological blow to Russia’s image as a dependable power could embolden local opposition groups and rival powers looking to undermine Russian influence in the region.

Impact on Russia’s influence in the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean has always been important for Russia, offering access to important sea routes, closeness to Europe, and a way to counter NATO’s presence. This strategic position allows Russia to have a greater impact on both regional and global politics. Russia has used its bases in Syria not only to maintain a military presence but also to challenge Nato’s influence in the region. Tartus, as Russia’s only naval base outside its borders, has played a critical role in supporting Russian military operations in Libya and North Africa. Losing this base would significantly diminish Russia’s ability to project power in the Mediterranean, leaving its southern flank exposed and its operations in North Africa at risk.

In response to the loss of Syria, Russia might attempt to establish new bases elsewhere, such as in Libya, Sudan, or Algeria. However, these efforts would likely face considerable resistance, particularly from Western powers like the US, which would strongly oppose any Russian naval presence in these regions. Even if Russia were to find new alternatives, the loss of Tartus would represent a significant strategic blow, limiting its ability to challenge Nato’s influence in the Mediterranean.

Fragility of Russia’s global alliances

The fall of Assad also highlights the fragile nature of Russia’s alliances. Moscow has built its foreign policy in recent years on a model of supporting autocratic regimes under threat from insurgencies. The Syrian conflict has been a prime example of this strategy with Russia offering military intervention, economic assistance and diplomatic support to a beleaguered regime. This “regime survival package” was a key element of Russia’s appeal to other autocrats around the world, particularly in Africa.

However, the collapse of Assad’s regime casts doubt on Russia’s ability to protect its allies. If Moscow cannot secure its position in Syria, it will be harder for African leaders to trust that Russia can shield them from internal or external threats. The perception that Russia’s military support is no longer reliable could lead to a shift in political alliances as African countries begin to seek out alternative partners who may offer more stability.

Long-term consequences for Russia

In the long term, the fall of Assad’s regime represents a turning point for Russia’s global ambitions. The loss of Syria as a key ally severely weakens Moscow’s ability to maintain its influence in the Mediterranean and North Africa, regions that are vital to its strategic objectives. The logistical challenges of resupplying its African allies, combined with the potential loss of political confidence, will force Russia to reconsider its military and diplomatic strategy.

For Russia’s African partners, the consequences could be equally significant. As Moscow grapples with its diminished capacity, African leaders may look for new sources of support, whether from the West, China or other emerging powers. This shift in alliances could reshape the geopolitical landscape of Africa, creating new opportunities for countries seeking to diversify their foreign relationships.

A defining moment for Russia

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a critical moment in Russia’s foreign policy. It is a clear signal that Moscow’s ambitions in West Asia and Africa face significant challenges. The loss of its military bases in Syria if it happens in reality won’t be just a logistical problem. It would be a blow to Russia’s credibility as a global power. How Russia responds to this setback will determine the future of its international influence. For African leaders who have relied on Moscow’s support, this is a moment of uncertainty. As the world watches, the fall of Assad could prove to be the beginning of a larger strategic decline for the Kremlin, one that will reshape its role in the global order for years to come.