Why Afghan presidential polls are of crucial importance to India

Coincidentally, just around next month end when India will have a new government and a new prime minister, neighbouring Afghanistan too is likely to have a new president. Likely because with a country like Afghanistan, which has remained in the grip of brutal violence and been a strategic chessboard for major international powers for the past 35 years, nothing can be said with certainty. There can still be many a slip between the cup and the lip, given the fierce opposition of the Taliban to this election and the Taliban walking its talk by spiking violence to deter 12 million voters from participating in the process. But we will come to this point, a little later. First, let us discuss why Afghan presidential election is important for India and its possible impact on India. Security and terrorism-related issues top the concerns of the Indian strategic establishment. One must not forget that the five years of Taliban rule in Afghanistan (1996-2001) proved to be a security nightmare for India. [caption id=“attachment_1467515” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Hamid Karzai is seen in this file photo. He can no longer contest the polls.  AP[/caption] So, the new Indian government will have to keep this factor foremost on its strategic agenda. There is another uncanny similarity in the political landscape of the two countries. By all accounts, a BJP-led government is likely to be in place in New Delhi at a time when the US/NATO forces are drawing down from Afghanistan, concomitantly ceding space to the Taliban. A Modi government, if it indeed becomes a reality, will have to be cautious of the security threat to India emanating from ISI-Taliban supported terror outfits. A lot will depend on how the new Afghan president deals with India. Even more important question would be how the new Afghan president deals with Taliban and Pakistan. The Taliban-ISI nexus had proven to be the biggest headache for the BJP-led NDA government during Taliban rule in Afghanistan, culminating in Indian Airlines IC 814 hijack on Christmas Eve in 1999. This was preceded by the Kargil War (May-July 1999). After the Taliban was militarily ousted by the US-led international community, footloose Taliban soldiers found themselves suddenly unemployed and many of them were diverted by Pakistan to Jammu and Kashmir, spiking terrorism in the Indian state in a big way. If Narendra Modi becomes the Prime Minister next month, he would have to keep Afghanistan on top of his security and strategic agenda to ensure that the BJP government’s old bugbear does not return to haunt it. The importance of Afghanistan for India is reflected politically as well as diplomatically. Apart from the US, Afghanistan is the only country where India has such a huge diplomatic presence – four Consulates (Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and Jalalabad), apart from an embassy in the capital Kabul. India has loosened its purse strings for developmental projects in Afghanistan in dozens of areas directly benefitting the common man in that country. India has thus far funneled developmental aid worth 3.2 billion dollars in Afghanistan. Besides, India has also invested about 11 billion dollars in Afghanistan in various projects so far. Both the figures are likely to increase further after the US/NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan. This can be possible only when there is an amenable government in place in Kabul. It is not for nothing that no other country enjoys as much popularity among the masses in Afghanistan as India does. A Gallup poll, conducted in 2010, proved this. It found that Afghans prefer India’s leadership over that of the US and China, with 50 percent expressing approval, the most positive rating of India for any other surveyed Asia-Pacific country. The 5 April,, Afghan presidential election is of utmost strategic importance for India, the region (Pakistan, China and Russia) and the US-led western community, apart from the people of Afghanistan themselves. The successful conduct of this election will be an important barometer to gauge the influence of the Taliban, which is hell bent on thwarting the exercise. If Taliban succeeds in liquidating any of the eight presidential candidates in the fray, it will inevitably not only be demonstrating its capability but also delaying the election process. This brings us to the point mentioned earlier in the article. The counting of votes is a tortuous process spread over from 6 to 20 April and preliminary results announcement is slated for 24 April. The final results announcement is on May 14 and a candidate will have to secure more than 50 percent of valid votes. If that does not happen, the top two will have to be locked in a run-off which will be held on 28 May. But if a candidate dies before the announcement of final results, despite vigil kept by 352,000 security personnel, new elections will have to be held within 30 days. Theoretically, the Taliban can keep on assassinating presidential candidates and thus keep on delaying the poll process for months. The current incumbent President Hamid Karzai, India’s tried and trusted friend who is in saddle since 2001, is constitutionally barred from seeking another term in office. This is the X factor in the Afghan presidential elections. The process has begun on 5 April but no one can be sure when will it actually be completed, if it gets completed. The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.