Who is escalating Ukraine war, Putin or West?

In a matter of few days, Russia and the West have made significant moves in escalating the ongoing war in Ukraine, making many fear the repercussions of this escalation. In light of this, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the ongoing war is escalating towards a “global conflict” with several international actors coming into play.

What makes things interesting is the fact that all this escalation in the war is taking place just two months before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office after winning the intense 2024 US Presidential elections. Many believe that US President Joe Biden has intensified Washington’s support to Kyiv before Trump seeks to deliver on his claims to end the conflict in 24 hours.

From allowing Ukraine to use American long-range missiles to providing the country with nearly $300 million in additional military assistance, the Biden administration did it all before Trump came into power and changed the course of the conflict.

However, what was seen as a trigger to this escalation was the presence of North Korean troops on the Russian battlefield. With fears of the war spilling over, several European nations like Finland and Sweden warned its citizens to “be prepared for the war”. Here’s a deep dive into how the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war escalated in such a short time and who is to blame for his escalation.

The deployment of North Korean troops on the Russian battlefield

On Tuesday, the ravaging conflict hit the 1,000-day mark, making many wonder how long the war will last. While there have been instances of escalation, the recent incidents indicate a dramatic rise in tensions between Russia and the West. Amid the chaos, many believe that the presence of North Korean troops in Russia acted as a catalyst for the whole ordeal.

The rumours of the presence of North Korean troops in Russia first emerged in October after Ukraine and South Korean intelligence raised an alarm. However, at that time, it was not clear what role these troops were performing on the battlefield. The lack of battlefield experience of the hermit nation’s troops was given as a key reason why they might just be assigned to non-combat roles.

However, the bubble popped soon after the US and Ukraine revealed that North Korean troops had already engaged in combat with Ukrainian soldiers. The Pentagon initially suggested that around 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed in the region. However, Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources reported that Pyongyang may deploy as many as 100,000 troops.

This did not sit well with Ukraine, the US and the Western world. The West was already concerned about the growing ties between Putin and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. With the latest developments, the West started to fear that the war might escalate beyond the borders of the two nations.

How West approached the matter?

Looking at the troops of two nations on the battleground, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy escalated his demands for help from the war-stricken nation’s Western allies. The result of the 2024 US presidential elections added fuel to the fire.

After Trump clinched a landslide victory against US Vice President Harris, the Biden administration became concerned about the continuation of its support to Ukraine.

In light of this, Biden gave a green signal to Kyiv to fire its first long-range atomic missiles deep into Russian territory. The United Kingdom followed the same suit and allowed Ukraine to use its Storm-Shadow missiles in Russia. Soon after this, on Wednesday, Ukraine confirmed that it had fired the British cruise missile into Russian territory for the first time since the start of the war.

The ICBM  Debacle: Putin hits back

A day after the attack from Ukraine, Russia fired a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday. In a televised address, Putin said that Moscow managed to strike a Ukrainian military facility with a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as “Oreshnik” (the hazel) and warned that more could follow.

He noted that civilians would be warned ahead of further strikes with such weapons. In response to this Zelenskyy said that the use of the new missile amounted to “a clear and severe escalation” in the war and called for strong worldwide condemnation. Meanwhile, a US official maintained that Russia notified Washington shortly before its strike, while another official said the US had briefed Kyiv to be prepared for another such attack.

Ukraine initially suggested that Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon designed for long-distance nuclear strikes and never before used in war. However, the Russian authorities quickly rejected the claims. The recent attack raised alarms about which way the war is going.

Why the war is escalating all of a sudden

It is important to note that both Russia and the West have solid reasons behind the escalation. They are as follows:

• Russia

For months Moscow has been uncomfortable with Ukraine’s advances in the Kursk region. In the past, Zelenskyy said that he could use the Ukrainian troops’ operation in the Kursk region as a tool to negotiate a peace deal which bode well with Ukraine. He went on to parade a “victory plan” to its Western allies.

Russia’s anger over the issue can be seen by the fact that most of the North Korean troops, if not all, are deployed in the Kursk region. In the Thursday address, Putin also maintained that the recent attack on Ukraine was in response to the US and UK’s allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced Western weapons.

• US and the West

As mentioned before Trump’s victory can be seen as one of the major reasons why the Biden administration started to take an aggressive stance in the war.

In the past, Trump claimed that he would end the war between the two countries in just 24 hours. The former President is also known for his ties with Putin and has even suggested that Moscow can keep the land it has captured and end a war. The peace plans that have been proposed by Trump for the past two years did not sit well with Ukraine.

While Trump said nothing on the matter as of now, his team have remained vocal. Earlier this month, Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, spoke of “another step up the escalation ladder and nobody knows where this is going”. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr complained that Biden was trying to “get World War III” going before his father could assume the office.

Meanwhile, the advent of Trump has also raised alarm among the NATO alliance as well. Trump has dragged some of the group’s member states for not paying a fair share in the alliance’s defence spending. Hence, NATO will also be keeping a close eye on the upcoming Trump presidency. As the war continues to escalate, experts still struggle to figure out how it will end.