When Zelenskyy meets Trump, expect a tussle over military-vs-minerals security guarantees

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday, hoping to secure American support for Ukraine’s security against future Russian threats.

During the visit, Ukraine and the US are expected to sign a major economic agreement to help rebuild Ukraine after the war. This deal would strengthen ties between the two nations for years.

While the agreement highlights the need for Ukraine’s security, a separate discussion between Zelenskyy and Trump will focus on that issue, likely starting on Friday.

As Ukrainian forces continue resisting Russia’s advances, Kyiv wants any US-backed peace plan to include strong security guarantees for the country’s future.

Many Ukrainians fear that a hastily negotiated peace—especially one that makes too many concessions to Russian demands—would allow Moscow to rearm and consolidate its forces for a future invasion after current hostilities cease.

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According to the preliminary economic agreement, seen by The Associated Press, the US and Ukraine will establish a co-owned, jointly managed investment fund to which Ukraine will contribute 50% of future revenues from natural resources, including minerals, hydrocarbons and other extractable materials.

A more detailed agreement on establishing the fund will be drawn up once the preliminary one is signed.

Trump has framed the emerging deal as a chance for Kyiv to compensate the US for wartime aid sent under Democratic President Joe Biden.

But Zelenskyy has remained firm that specific assurances for Ukraine’s security must accompany any agreement giving US access to Ukraine’s resources. On Wednesday, he said the agreement “may be part of future security guarantees, but I want to understand the broader vision. What awaits Ukraine?”

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Trump remains non-committal about any American security guarantees.

“I’m not going to make security guarantees … very much,” Trump told reporters this week. “We’re going to have Europe do that.”

If a truce can be reached, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have agreed to send troops for a potential peacekeeping mission to Ukraine to ensure that fighting between Ukraine and Russia does not flare up again. Both leaders travelled to Washington this week before the Zelenskyy visit to discuss with Trump the potential peacekeeping mission and other concerns about the war.

White House officials are sceptical that Britain and France can assemble enough troops from across Europe, at least at this moment, to deploy a credible peacekeeping mission to Kyiv.

It will likely take a “consensual peace settlement” between Russia and Ukraine before many nations would be willing to provide such forces, according to a senior Trump administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House.

Zelenskyy and European officials have no illusions about US troops taking part in such a mission. But Starmer and others are trying to make the case that the plan can only work with a US backstop for European forces on the ground—through US aerial intelligence, surveillance and support, as well as rapid-response cover in case the truce is breached.

“You’ve created a moment of tremendous opportunity to reach a historic peace deal—a deal that I think would be celebrated in Ukraine and around the world,” Starmer told Trump. “That is the prize. But we have to get it right.”

Zelenskyy has been vague on exactly what kinds of security guarantees would be suitable for his country, and while he continues to advocate for Ukraine’s eventual membership in NATO, he has also suggested a similar security arrangement would suffice.

But Trump on Wednesday said Ukraine “could forget about” joining the Western military alliance.

Still, Zelenskyy’s meeting with Trump, their first since the US leader’s inauguration in January, is seen in Kyiv as a diplomatic win for Ukraine. On Wednesday, Zelenskyy said being able to meet personally with Trump before Russian President Vladimir Putin does “is a good signal.”

Zelenskyy said he hopes to discuss whether the US plans to halt its military aid to Ukraine and, if so, whether Kyiv would be able to purchase weapons directly from the US.
He also wants to know whether Ukraine can use frozen Russian assets for the purchase of weapons and whether Washington plans to lift sanctions on Moscow.

Fears that Trump could broker a peace deal with Russia that is unfavourable to Ukraine have been amplified by recent precedent-busting actions by his administration. Trump held a lengthy phone call with Putin, and US officials met with their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia without inviting European or Ukrainian leaders—both dramatic breaks with previous US policy to isolate Putin over his invasion.

Trump later seemed to falsely blame Ukraine for starting the war, and called Zelenskyy a “dictator” for not holding elections after the end of his regular term last year, though Ukrainian law prohibits elections while martial law is in place.

As Zelenskyy seeks to lower tensions with the US while in Washington, American officials are saying the economic deal, if implemented, would itself provide a measure of security to Ukraine through the presence of US investments on its territory.

On Wednesday, Trump said the US working on mineral extraction in Ukraine would amount to “automatic security because nobody’s going to be messing around with our people when we’re there.”

“It’s a great deal for Ukraine too, because they get us over there and we’re going to be working over there,” Trump said. “We will be on the land.”

That perspective is echoed by the text of the economic agreement, which says the US “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.”
Washington, it continues, has “a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine.”

With inputs from AP