What really fuels Putin’s war: Not oil or weapons, but Russia’s grip on global nuclear business

While the world has been focusing on the Iranian nuclear programme , another country has been flourishing in nuclear technology and the production of enriched uranium. While the matters are still under control and the enriched uranium is far less explosive than the situation in Tehran, it still can be concerning for the global world order.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly used nuclear threats to try to deter Western support for Ukraine since the 2022 invasion, warning of dire consequences if Western countries intervene militarily. While many in the West consider it a bluff, Russia’s nuclear capabilities paint a different story.

It is pertinent to note that the civilian nuclear industry can be broadly divided into two main markets: 1) Building nuclear power stations or reactors. 2) The production and supply of enriched-uranium fuel. It is believed that whoever dominates these export markets gains not just geopolitical heft and economic and soft power, but also influence over the policing of nuclear proliferation and safety standards.

According to the figures released by the World Nuclear Association, in both cases, it is Russia that is dominating the market. Rosatom, the country’s state-owned nuclear firm, has about 65 per cent of the global export market for nuclear reactors in power stations. Meanwhile, Moscow controls 44 per cent of the world’s uranium-enrichment capacity.

Money comes from friends and foes alike

According to a report published by The Economist, Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear corporation, is involved in the construction of about 20 reactors abroad. Out of these, 17 are built outside Russia, with active projects in countries like Turkey, Egypt, India, and Bangladesh.

The buyers also include countries that are critical of Putin. For example, the continent of Europe continues to remain dependent on Russian technology and nuclear fuel, despite Western efforts to reduce reliance.

Money also comes from foes like the United States of America. In 2023, the US bought roughly a quarter of its enriched uranium from Russia, while the Ukraine war was still ongoing. Russia’s nuclear exports have become its key source of revenue and international influence.

Nations tend to see Russia as an alternative to Western suppliers or China, which are much more limited and would take years to scale up. Amid sanctions, World Bank data suggested that in 2023, Russia earned about $2.7bn from exporting enriched uranium—mostly to America and the EU, and another $1.1bn from exporting reactors and components, such as the fuel assemblies that hold the enriched uranium.

Rosatom itself noted that its foreign operations generated revenue of more than $16bn in 2023, including more than $7bn from building new power plants, many of them funded by Russian state-backed loans. This figure has been rising since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Why it matters

Through customer reliance on Russian fuel or nuclear technology, Russia gains diplomatic leverage. For instance, in May, the European Commission pledged to release plans the following month to introduce taxes or levies on Russian enriched uranium. However, the plan received heavy resistance from Slovakia and Hungary , which both have Russian-designed reactors, as they complained that the European plan would lead to higher prices.

Similarly, Turkey’s 2010 deal with Rosatom to build and operate four nuclear reactors in the country deepened its ties to Russia. Many saw it as a reason why Ankara decided to buy S-400 aircraft missile batteries from Russia as well. Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, Rosatom is building two reactors that will add about 10 per cent to the country’s generating capacity.

This will put Bangladesh alongside the likes of Hungary and Slovakia, which are assessed to have a “high” dependence on Russian-built or -operated nuclear power plants. In light of this, Western governments are taking a two-pronged strategy when it comes to dealing with Russian dominance.

The first involves reducing their reliance on enriched uranium, fuel assemblies and other services provided by Rosatom. The second is to try more vigorously to compete with Russia in selling reactors. In 2023, the US, the UK, Canada, France and Japan formed the “Sapporo Five” group to collaborate on at least $4.2bn-worth of investments in new enrichment. Hence, it will be interesting to see whether this group will be able to beat the Russian dominance.