Weak economy, COVID rampage shrank China's population again in 2023, predict demographers ahead of 17 Jan data release

China is likely to experience a second consecutive year of population decline in 2023, primarily attributed to a surge in COVID-related deaths following the abrupt termination of strict lockdowns. Demographers estimate population data on 17 January to show the number of new births in 2023 falling below the 9.56 million in 2022 as long-standing issues such as gender inequality and high childcare costs remained largely unaddressed. The decline in China’s birth rate has been ongoing since 2016. Compounding factors impacting the desire for childbearing include record-high youth unemployment, declining wages for many civil servants and white-collar workers, and an escalating crisis in the property sector, which houses over two-thirds of household wealth. The data raises concerns about the diminishing growth prospects of the world’s second-largest economy, as the decreasing workforce and consumer base, coupled with rising costs related to elderly care and retirement benefits, further strain indebted local governments. “The slower-than-expected economic recovery and the uncertainty of the future in China play a bigger role” in fertility than any positive effect coming from lifting COVID curbs, Reuters quoted Xiujian Peng, senior research fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University in Melbourne, as saying. Demographers expect deaths to have risen sharply, as the COVID-19 virus swept through China’s 1.41 billion population early last year after Beijing unexpectedly removed restrictions in December 2022. China officially reported 121,889 total COVID deaths to the World Health Organization (WHO), with a majority believed to have occurred after the dismantling of restrictions. The WHO had criticized Beijing for alleged underreporting, a claim that Chinese officials consistently denied. Concerns about transparency arose as crematoriums became overwhelmed, and there were suspicions of pressure on doctors not to classify deaths as COVID-related. In an unusual move in July, China’s Zhejiang province, representing 5% of the country’s population, reported a 70% increase in cremations from January to March the previous year. However, this data has since been taken down. A study conducted by the Seattle-based Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center estimated approximately 1.87 million excess deaths from all causes among Chinese individuals over the age of 30 between December 2022 and January 2023. It is essential to verify the latest information from reliable news sources or official statements for the most accurate and up-to-date details, as my knowledge is based on information available up to January 2022. University of Michigan demographer Zhou Yun said next week’s data may underreport the population decline to hide the magnitude of the COVID impact and project optimism. “Population data reporting in China is as much a demographic issue as it is a political event,” Reuters quoted Yun as saying. The population dip comes as China grapples with the challenge of a rapidly ageing demographic. The number of people older than 60 years is expected to increase from around 280 million currently to over 400 million by 2035 - more than the population of the United States. ‘Culture of childbearing’ Besides low incomes and high job uncertainty, demographers also blame gender discrimination and expectations that women assume the caretaker role in the family as factors discouraging baby-making. President Xi Jinping said last year that women should tell “good family tradition stories,” adding it was necessary to “actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing,” which he linked to national development. Local governments have announced various measures to encourage childbirth, including tax deductions, longer maternity leave and housing subsidies. One set of data pointing to lower birth rates in 2023 is the 2022 slump in marriage rates to their lowest since 1979. Marriages are seen as a leading indicator for births in China, where most single women cannot access child-raising benefits. Marriages are expected to have risen year-on-year in 2023, state media reported, as the COVID backlog cleared, but this would not be enough to ease long-term concerns about China’s shrinking and ageing population, demographers said. China’s fertility rate dropped to a record low of 1.09 in 2022 from 1.3 in 2020, state media reported. It is among the world’s lowest alongside other east Asian economies. Fuxian Yi, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Reuters that he expects new births at roughly 8 million, which he says would be the lowest since the mid-18th century when China’s total population was below 200 million people_._ Yi says this is the ongoing effect of the one-child policy China implemented from 1980 to 2015 as smaller generations tend to have fewer babies. He also blamed economic factors. Peng from Victoria University estimates fewer than 9 million births, but says a dip below 8 million is “a plausible scenario.” A December policy paper by the Yuwa Population Research institute urged authorities to “urgently” reverse a decline in newborns through generous family subsidies. “The most worthwhile investment in China today is children,” it said. With inputs from agencies