US warns Pakistan against terror strikes: Concern for Obama and not for India

The United States has reportedly instructed Pakistan not to choreograph any terror attacks during President Barack Obama’s upcoming India visit later this week and has warned of “consequences” if any terror attacks on India are traced back to Pakistan. It is an unprecedented happening in the US-Pakistan-India trilateral context. This demonstrates Washington’s enormous clout over Pakistan and after this Pakistan-based terror outfits, with or without the support of state actors, will find it well nigh impossible to launch terror strikes on Indian soil around the time of Obama’s India visit, though the Indian and American security and intelligence establishments are leaving nothing to chance. This raises the inevitable question: Why can’t the US ensure this zero terrorism status with regard to Pakistan’s penchant for proxy war against India even otherwise? [caption id=“attachment_2053503” align=“alignleft” width=“380” class=" “]  US President Barack Obama is the chief guest for the Republic Day parade. Reuters[/caption] The answer is simple. The Americans can intervene decisively in shutting off the Pakistan terror tap with regard to India at all times but they are not interested as it is simply not their business. They would threaten Pakistan and ensure compliance of their diktats only in special situations like the one obtaining next week when Obama comes calling in New Delhi. Moreover, the Americans have immense strategic interests in Pakistan, particularly in view of the fact that they will be hugely dependent on Pakistan after all American/Nato troops get out of Afghanistan by the end of 2016. In other words, the Americans always steer clear of the India-Pakistan bilateral problems and get into the picture only when it becomes absolutely essential and when their own foreign policy interests are invoked. They give a long rope to Pakistan and turn a blind eye to the Pakistani shenanigans when their immediate diplomatic and strategic interests are not threatened. Around the time when President Bill Clinton had traveled to India in March 2000, Pakistan-supported terrorists had massacred 36 Sikhs in the Anantnag district of Jammu and Kashmir. This was a blatant attempt by Pakistan to convey to the Clinton administration that Kashmir was an unfinished business between India and Pakistan which the US-led international community could neither afford to ignore nor brush it under the carpet. This time around the Obama administration’s message to Pakistan is that such acts of violence would not be acceptable. But there is a fine print too. What the Americans are conveying to Islamabad and Rawalpindi is this: hands off India during Obama’s India visit. This may seem to be a happy situation for India, but actually it is not. This only proves that the US has the necessary clout to keep Pakistan-supported terror outfits’ guns silent but it would do only for a limited period because of the American President’s visit to India. And US Presidents do not travel to India at the drop of a hat! It has taken India a decade-long hyper diplomatic engagement with the US to ensure that Obama becomes the first US President ever to visit India for the second time during his tenure. Therefore, the invisible US security umbrella will be available to India only for a limited duration and it will be up to the Indians to decide if they are keen on having it forever and making it more pronounced and visible. It goes without saying that the American security umbrella will come with conditions attached which can hardly be amenable or acceptable to any government in India. Now that the Americans have warned Pakistan against launching any high-profile terror attacks on Indian soil coinciding with Obama’s India visit, it is highly unlikely that rogue elements in Pakistan would still go ahead with such plans. But should that eventually happen, it would be the American clout, not Indian government’s success. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team must be already well aware of the ground realities in this context. The government would do well to pitch it upfront to President Obama that Pakistan is reined in not for just this month but for all times to come. In many ways, it is asking for the moon. In any case, as suggested above, it can’t come about without any strategic give-and-take. How about PM Modi bluntly asking President Obama about the price of this zero terrorism from Pakistan? True that there are no free lunches and there are price tags for such kind of situations, but there should be no harm in exploring answers to this question from President Obama. It will be entirely up to the Indian government to agree or disagree with the American plan and take a decision entirely on the basis of Indian national interests. This should not be an impossible try by Modi the strongman!