US: Signs of thaw in shutdown freeze, Senators see hope of a deal next week

Hopes are rising among rank-and-file US Senators that the month-long government shutdown may finally be nearing an end, with many expecting a bipartisan agreement as early as next week.

While party leaders continue to clash, sources, as cited by the American news website  Semafor, indicate an “unmistakable shift” and a noticeable “thaw” in dynamics among lawmakers and aides across both the Republican and Democratic parties.

The potential breakthrough is being driven by a mix of looming deadlines and political pressure, though a deal this week remains unlikely as President Donald Trump is out of town.

Several key factors are pushing for a resolution next week.

First, expiring benefits: food stamps and other government aid programs are set to run out in many states by the coming Saturday, creating immediate pressure to act.

Second, off-year elections scheduled for the following Tuesday could raise the political stakes, making the party blamed for the prolonged shutdown potentially pay a higher political price.

Finally, the opening of the Obamacare insurance markets this weekend adds urgency, as rising premiums are linked to the imminent expiration of federal subsidies, a particularly pressing concern for Democrats.

Also read | Radio Free Asia suspends operation after Trump’s cuts and historic shutdown

Focus on a broader spending deal

Senators are quietly discussing how to restart Congress’s broken spending process.

Any potential resolution would almost certainly involve an agreement to pass full-year spending bills, moving away from the short-term, stopgap funding measures, known as continuing resolutions (CRs), that have become common under the current administration.

Lawmakers are pushing for movement on specific appropriation bills covering defence, labour, and commerce.

While Republicans hope Democrats will recognise the “inflicting” pain of the shutdown, Democrats are demanding a win on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits. Many believe that progress will accelerate once President Trump returns to Washington and commits to meeting with congressional principals.

If the shutdown extends into the middle of next week, it will officially surpass 35 days, becoming the longest government shutdown in US history.