US retail sales rise: Americans are still spending, economists wonder ‘how long this can continue’

US retail sales rose for the third straight month in August — even as costs have risen from tariffs and job growth has stalled.

In August, the overall retail sales growth was 0.6 per cent, with nine out of 13 categories registered retail sales growth, led by online retailers clothing stores and sporting goods, according to Bloomberg.

One reason for such a trend may be that many workers’ pay gains continue to outpace inflation even as the sentiment remains subdued. But economists are concerned how long the trend may continue.

“Consumers say they are gloomy about the economic outlook, but they are still opening their wallets and spending, even on little splurges for themselves and their families. The big question is how long this can continue if layoffs pick up,” said Heather Long, the Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union in a note.

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Another reason for the trend may be that the value of sales has risen and not necessarily volumes, according to Shannon Grein, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co.

“They look really strong at face value, but some of that is just due to higher prices of product, not necessarily more volume,” said Grein.

While we have all been spooked by a slower jobs market, the consumer data is telling us that households are still spending, Grein further said.

Other than the retail sales growth, nearly all economic metrics are flashing warning signs: job growth has tanked, inflation has risen, recessions odds have risen, unemployment has risen, manufacturing has fallen, and a leading economist has said that a third of states are already in recession.

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In August, the US economy added just 22,000 non-farm jobs compared to the projection of 75,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate rose to a nearly four-year-high of 4.3 per cent. Despite President Donald Trump’s pledge to boost manufacturing, the sector grew at the slowest pace in 10 months.

Even though Republicans are not criticising Trump for presiding over the economic decline, surveys show that the majority of Americans disapprove his handling of the economy, with Real Clear Politics’ polling average showing that 54.1 per cent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.