Trump gains support among Black and Hispanic voters with 'America First' policy

Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign was marred by controversy including his comments about Mexican immigrants and false claims about Barack Obama’s birthplace. Now, eight years later, polls suggest Trump may return to the White House with unexpected support from Black and Hispanic voters, outperforming previous Republican nominees since the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Riding on “America First” foreign policy which seems to be resonating with Black and Hispanic voters, who are increasingly sympathetic to Trump’s views beyond just race and immigration, a majority of these voters believe the US should focus on domestic problems rather than global issues.

This shift in trend is also reflected in Trump’s trade policies, which have gained significant support from Black and Hispanic voters, according to previous Times/Siena surveys.

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump is doing unexpectedly well among Black and Hispanic voters, with 15% of Black likely voters planning to vote for him, a 6-point increase from 2020. This shift is largely driven by younger Black voters and Black men losing faith in the Democratic Party, feeling that Democrats have failed to deliver on their promises.

Kamala Harris leads Trump by 78% to 15% among Black voters and 56% to 37% among Hispanic voters. The figure indicates a significant improvement for Trump compared to 2020 when Joe Biden secured 92% of the Black vote and 63% of the Hispanic vote, according to the poll.

Despite offending many Black and Hispanic voters over the years with statements such as recently claiming Haitian refugees eat cats and dogs and calling undocumented immigrants “poisonous,” a notable minority of these voters are not deterred.

Around 15% of Black likely voters now say they plan to vote for Trump, a 6-point increase from four years ago. Much of the decline in support for Harris comes from a growing perception that Democrats have failed to fulfil promises made to Black voters. Among Black voters under 30, 40% believe the Republican Party is more likely to deliver on its commitments than Democrats.

The poll also reveals a notable gender gap among Black voters, with 83% of Black women supporting Kamala Harris, while 12% back Trump, and 5% remain undecided. In contrast, Trump has made gains among Black men, with 70% planning to vote for Harris, down from 85% in 2020.

Despite these gains, Trump still faces daunting challenges among Black and Hispanic Americans, with 7 in 10 Black Americans and half of Hispanic Americans holding negative views of him. However, Trump’s campaign hopes to capitalise on frustration with President Joe Biden, whose favourability has declined among Black and Hispanic Americans since 2021

An NAACP poll conducted last month also showed that over one-quarter of younger Black men say they would support Republican candidate Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election.

The Trump campaign has been conducting listening sessions and community events in Black neighbourhoods in cities like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee.

The campaign has also coordinated a “Black Voices for Trump” bus tour across cities in September. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign has held several events geared toward Black voters, especially Black men, and has deployed several high-profile surrogates, including lawmakers, celebrities and civil rights leaders, to Black communities in recent weeks.