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US intelligence warns that Israel-Hezbollah war might erupt if there's no ceasefire deal on Gaza crisis

FP Staff June 29, 2024, 14:20:08 IST

The ‘intelligence indicated the catalyst for war — a major attack by either side, for example — is likely to happen with little notice,’ the report suggested

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Smoke rises from the southern Lebanese town of Khiam, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from the town of Qlayaa, southern Lebanon June 25, 2024. File Image / Reuters
Smoke rises from the southern Lebanese town of Khiam, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from the town of Qlayaa, southern Lebanon June 25, 2024. File Image / Reuters

Amid the brewing tensions in the Middle East, US intelligence warned that there is a looming potential for a large-scale war between Israel and Lebanon within weeks if all the parties involved in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict fail to secure a ceasefire deal.

While speaking to POLITICO, American intelligence officials said that a truce deal in the Gaza crisis is important to prevent overall turmoil in the Middle East.

However, the prospects of an imminent agreement remain bleak with Israel moving forward with its ground operation in Rafah. They also pointed out how both the Israeli military and Hezbollah are reportedly preparing for a full-scale conflict, including efforts to procure additional weaponry.

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Tensions remain at an all-time high

According to POLITICO, two senior officials from the US intelligence said that Israel is trying to rebuild its “stockpiles and troop capacity quickly”.

Meanwhile, Iran’s UN mission said that if Israel embarks on a “full-scale military aggression” in Lebanon, “an obliterating war will ensue.”

“Albeit Iran deems as psychological warfare the Zionist regime’s propaganda about intending to attack Lebanon, should it embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue. All options, incl. the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table,” the Iranian mission wrote on X, formally known as Twitter.

While the current tussle between Israel and Hezbollah is relatively contained, it is pertinent to note that the ongoing situation marks the worst confrontation between the two parties in 18 years.

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The two sides have been trading fire ever since the Israel-Hamas war commenced. The war which was triggered by Hamas’ surprise attack in Southern Israel has already led to the death of over 40,000 Palestinian civilians.

Several countries issue travel advisories

The risk of a full-scale conflict has led to many European countries issuing advisories for their citizens urging them to leave Lebanon. The US State Department has also issued a travel advisory advising American citizens to “reconsider” travel to Lebanon.

The “intelligence indicates the catalyst for war — a major attack by either side, for example — is likely to happen with little notice,” one of the intelligence officials told POLITICO while talking about the reasons why such advisories are being issued.

Things became even more concerning after Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who visited the US this week, told reporters, “We are preparing for every possible scenario.” Hence, it is feared that the looming conflict between Israel and Hezbollah can hit the world at any time.

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With inputs from agencies.

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