 "The Ukrainian Armed Forces fires a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops in a front line in Kherson region, Ukraine. Experts note that it's unlikely that the deal will bring any change on the ground. Reuters")
An unclassified US intelligence assessment has revealed that Russia and Ukraine would rather drag out the war than settle for a bad peace deal. The latest intelligence report published earlier this week says that despite both the warring parties showing their willingness to participate in a temporary truce, “leaders for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement."
The intelligence report was presented on Tuesday during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the annual Worldwide Threat Assessment. Top officials, including Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, testified at the session. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has been urging both parties to cease hostilities.
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt military strikes in the Black Sea and on energy sites during talks brokered by the United States, which offered to ease pressure on agricultural exports as a first concrete incentive to Moscow.
In parallel statements, the White House said that each country “agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.”
The Kremlin, meanwhile, said the agreement to halt strikes on the Black Sea could come into force only after the lifting of restrictions on its agriculture sector.
What has the report revealed?
The annual intelligence report, according to Bloomberg, said that Putin believes that “positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity.”
At the same time, both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are likely aware of the dangers of a prolonged war. The report indicated that an extended conflict could strain Russia’s economy and increase the risk of unintended escalation with the West. Meanwhile, for Ukraine, Zelenskyy likely recognizes the uncertainty surrounding continued Western support.
Impact Shorts
View AllOfficials within the US intelligence community also think that an extended war would lead Putin to resort to nuclear weapons. The report said, “Russia’s inability to achieve quick and decisive battlefield wins, coupled with Ukrainian strikes within Russia, continues to drive concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons.”
With inputs from agencies