US exit from Afghanistan may be a danger to its drone mission in Pak

In the event of President Barack Obama ultimately withdrawing all American troops from Afghanistan, the CIA's drone bases in the war-torn country would have to be closed because they could no longer be protected, a report in the New York Times quoted US administration officials as saying.

hidden January 27, 2014 15:20:13 IST
US exit from Afghanistan may be a danger to its drone mission in Pak

New York: The possibility of a complete withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan has raised concerns that the US will lose strategic air bases meant for drone strikes against the al-Qaeda in Pakistan and for responding to a nuclear crisis in the region, a media report
said.

In the event of President Barack Obama ultimately withdrawing all American troops from Afghanistan, the CIA's drone bases in the war-torn country would have to be closed because they could no longer be protected, a report in the New York Times quoted US administration officials as saying.

US exit from Afghanistan may be a danger to its drone mission in Pak

Representational image. AFP

The concern of American intelligence agencies also reflect how troop levels in Afghanistan directly affect long-term American security interests in neighbouring Pakistan, it said.

The concern of American intelligence agencies is that the "nearest alternative bases are too far away for drones to reach the mountainous territory in Pakistan where the remnants of al Qaeda's central command are hiding. Those bases would also be too distant to monitor and respond as quickly as American forces can today if there were a crisis in the region, such as missing nuclear material or weapons in Pakistan and India," the NYT report said.

It said Pakistan has in recent years accelerated its drive to build small tactical nuclear weapons that could be used to "repel an invasion from India."

Those weapons are considered more vulnerable to theft or use by a rogue commander, and are the one reason that American intelligence agencies have invested heavily in monitoring the Pakistani arsenal, the report added.

The concern is so serious that the Obama administration has organised a team of intelligence, military and policy specialists to come up with alternatives to mitigate the damage if a final security deal cannot be struck with Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who has declined to enact an agreement that American officials thought was completed last year.

The sense of urgency among US intelligence agencies is mainly due to the Pentagon's two proposals to Obama regarding the Afghan pullout.

One option calls for a presence through the end of Obama's term of 10,000 American troops who could train Afghan troops, conduct counter-terrorism raids and protect the American facilities, including those in eastern Afghanistan where drones and nuclear monitoring are based.

The other is the "zero option" under which no American troops would remain in Afghanistan beyond 2014. The US has said that if it is unable to reach a final security arrangement with Karzai, it is prepared, even if reluctantly, to pull out completely, as it did in Iraq in 2011.

"You hear about the president's decision of the 'zero option' in the context of the future of Afghanistan, but this is really more about Pakistan," said one former senior intelligence official.

"That's where the biggest problem is."

As the possibility of a pullout "has grown in Afghanistan, we have been undertaking a methodical review of any US capabilities that may be affected and developing strategies to mitigate impacts," a senior administration official said in the report adding that the Obama administration was determined to find alternatives.

"We will be forced to adapt," the official said, "and while perhaps less than most efficient, the United States will find ways necessary to protect our interests".

National Security Council's spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden said Obama has made "no decisions" on troop levels adding that "We will be weighing inputs from our military commanders, as well as the intelligence community, our diplomats and 0development experts, as we make decisions about our-post 2014 presence in Afghanistan."

Obama's hope is to keep 8,000 to 12,000 troops, a combination of Americans and allied troops in Afghanistan after the NATO combat mission ends this year. However the resurgence of Al Qaeda s affiliate in Iraq and insurgents in Syria, has offered a sobering reminder of the consequences of the American decision to withdraw all its troops from Iraq.

The CIA's drone bases in Afghanistan, including one in the eastern part of the country, allow operators to respond quickly to fresh intelligence. The proximity to Pakistan's tribal areas also allows the Predator drones and their larger, faster cousin, the Reaper, to fly longer missions without having to return to base.

Other allied countries within the Reaper s range are in the Persian Gulf. But the distances would be too great to carry out drone operations effectively, officials said, and it is very unlikely that any of those nations would approve launching the diplomatically sensitive strikes missions from their soil.

PTI

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