Why India won't think too much about America's next president, and it's not about Trump

As world leaders poured in their congratulations to Donald Trump on his re-election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended a heartfelt message, emphasising the strength of the India-US partnership. Modi, addressing Trump as “my friend,” highlighted the potential for the two nations to deepen their collaboration.

“As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity,” Modi stated.

Continuity in a long-term strategic partnership

India-US relations rest on a bedrock of bipartisan support in the United States. Both Democrats and Republicans recognise the significance of the India-US partnership, so the fundamentals are unlikely to change with Trump’s return. However, changes in leadership do introduce nuances. Modi has witnessed three different US presidents since he became India’s prime minister in 2014, generating productive relationships with each: Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. His rapport with Trump, in particular, was marked by events like the Howdy Modi gathering in Texas and the massive stadium rally in Ahmedabad. This strong personal chemistry with Trump might prove advantageous as they resume working together.

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Economic and trade policy

One of the key areas to watch is Trump’s stance on tariffs. Trump has long advocated for tariffs on imports, which could impact India’s $75 billion trade with the US, encompassing critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals and engineering goods. While this stance could affect Indian exports, both sides may be able to reach mutually beneficial trade adjustments without escalating to a trade conflict.

Another sensitive issue is H1B work visas. Trump’s strict immigration policies previously included curbing work permits for immigrants, arguing that foreign workers reduce opportunities for Americans. Should these policies reemerge, India may face hurdles in securing US work opportunities for its skilled professionals. The two countries also have joint plans to build semiconductor plants in India, but Trump’s inclination toward encouraging American firms to produce domestically may test these collaborations.

Geopolitical partnerships: West Asia

Trump’s earlier tenure saw groundbreaking shifts in West Asia, notably the normalisation of relations between Israel and several Arab states. This shift benefitted India by opening avenues for cooperation through initiatives like the I2U2 grouping (India, Israel, UAE and the US) and an emerging India-to-Europe shipping corridor via West Asia. Trump’s diplomatic success in West Asia could be advantageous for India’s strategic interests in the region.

However, Iran presents a potential stumbling block. Trump’s prior sanctions on Iran forced India to halt its import of Iranian oil, a cost-effective energy source. With Trump’s known hardline stance on Iran, India’s ongoing investment in the Chabahar Port might face challenges if sanctions are reinstated. India will be hoping that its strategic interests in Chabahar don’t clash with Trump’s regional objectives.

India’s neighbourhood: Pakistan and Bangladesh

India’s relations with Pakistan and Bangladesh could also be affected. Trump had previously taken a firm stance against Pakistan, accusing it of failing to meet its obligations in the fight against terrorism and even cutting off military aid. This tough approach contrasted with Biden’s resumption of aid and India may hope that Trump’s return signals a continuation of his harder stance on Pakistan.

In Bangladesh, Trump’s comments labelling the country as “chaotic” and drawing attention to attacks on minorities stand in sharp contrast to Biden’s engagement with figures like Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. India will be watching closely to see if Trump’s rhetoric on Bangladesh translates into policy.

Relations with Russia and China

Trump’s approach to Russia and China carries important implications for India. Trump has had a stable relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even pushing for Russia’s reinstatement in the G7, which could benefit India by reducing the pressure of balancing its relations between Washington and Moscow. For India, this means fewer diplomatic complications.

With China, Trump has consistently taken a hardline stance, especially during the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, where he offered to mediate while his officials criticised China’s aggression. Trump’s return could mean continued pressure on Beijing, aligning with India’s interests in countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific.

India’s strategic autonomy

In a rapidly shifting global landscape, India’s foreign policy remains rooted in its strategic autonomy. This approach allows New Delhi to engage constructively with major powers while avoiding excessive alignment with any single country. As Trump returns to the White House, India is unlikely to make significant adjustments to its foreign policy approach. Instead, it will continue leveraging its geopolitical position, cultivating partnerships based on mutual respect and shared interests.

Trump’s re-election brings both opportunities and challenges for India. Yet, India’s firm geopolitical footing means that New Delhi is prepared to navigate the nuances of another Trump administration. While certain policies may evolve, the underlying strategic alignment between India and the US will continue to serve as a foundation for their collaboration in global affairs.