Why vaccine stocks tumbled after Trump chose RFK Jr for US health secretary

The appointment of vaccine sceptic Robert F Kennedy Jr by United States President-elect Donald Trump to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has sent what can only be called shockwaves through the pharmaceutical industry, sparking a sharp decline in vaccine stocks.

Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax, BioNTech, and GSK saw notable drops on Thursday as news spread about Trump’s decision.

How the stock market reacted to the Kennedy appointment

In the final hour of Thursday’s trading, shares of major vaccine producers nosedived. Moderna stock dropped by 5.6 per cent to $39.77, reaching its lowest price of the year.

Novavax shares closed 7 per cent lower, while Pfizer dipped 2.6 per cent to $26.02. BioNTech, which collaborated with Pfizer on the widely used Comirnaty COVID-19 vaccine, fell more than 7 per cent to $103.56, while British drugmaker GSK lost 2 per cent.

Sanofi, which has recently struggled with declining revenue, dropped another 3.4 per cent.

This plunge continues a broader downward trend in vaccine stocks that has persisted throughout 2023. Moderna, in particular, has seen a dramatic decline of over 60 per cent since January, when it was trading at $112.50 per share.

Health policy experts noted that the Kennedy appointment could lead to further stock instability in the health sector, especially as Kennedy is known for challenging vaccine safety and promoting theories that have raised widespread concern.

How Kennedy’s anti-vaccine views may impact the public

A prominent critic of vaccine safety protocols, Kennedy has amassed a large following due to his opposition to vaccines and various public health measures. As the founder of Children’s Health Defense, the most financially robust anti-vaccine organisation in the US, Kennedy has continuously promoted claims linking vaccines to autism — a theory debunked by numerous studies over the years.

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He has voiced his belief in a government-led “overreach” in vaccination policy and promised to investigate vaccine safety if appointed, though he has clarified that he “won’t take vaccines away from anybody.”

Kennedy’s influence extends beyond vaccines. In an interview with NBC, he criticised the FDA for lax standards, citing an example of Fruit Loops, which he argued are sold in Canada with significantly fewer additives than in the US. He has also expressed opposition to fluoride in drinking water, which he views as a “toxin,” and has vowed to remove it if confirmed.

Trump, meanwhile, posted on Truth Social, “The Safety and Health of all Americans is the most important role of any Administration, and HHS will play a big role in helping ensure that everybody will be protected from harmful chemicals, pollutants, pesticides, pharmaceutical products, and food additives that have contributed to the overwhelming Health Crisis in this Country.”

How Kennedy may change the public health policy in America

Kennedy’s appointment may lead to a fundamental reshaping of public health policy, with a focus on his “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) campaign. The initiative promotes reducing chemical exposure and re-evaluating the FDA’s regulation of food and drug safety.

Kennedy’s comments on “detoxing” the health sector suggest he may push for stricter safety standards on pharmaceuticals and healthcare products. His opposition to vaccines has sparked concern among health professionals, who worry about potential reductions in public support for COVID-19 and routine immunisations.

The response from lawmakers has been divided. Senator Rand Paul expressed optimism, tweeting, “Finally, someone to detox the place after the Fauci era. Get ready for health care freedom and MAHA!”

Congratulations to @RobertKennedyJr on his nomination as Secretary of Health and Human Services. Finally, someone to detox the place after the Fauci era. Get ready for health care freedom and MAHA!

— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) November 14, 2024

However, Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden voiced concerns about Kennedy’s influence over public health policies, stating, “When Mr. Kennedy comes before the Finance Committee, it’s going to be very clear what Americans stand to lose under Trump and Republicans in Congress.”

How vaccine demand in the US has changed since the pandemic

While COVID-19 vaccination rates have waned in recent years, vaccine manufacturers had already seen a decline in revenue due to the reduced demand for pandemic-related health measures.

Pfizer’s revenue, for instance, had peaked at nearly $57 billion in 2022 due to the success of Comirnaty and Paxlovid, though these figures dropped considerably in 2023.

Moderna, Novavax, and other vaccine-focused companies have similarly experienced revenue declines due to declining COVID-19 cases and increased vaccine stockpiles.

According to current CDC Director Mandy Cohen, Kennedy’s position could also affect how Americans perceive vaccine safety and efficacy, which could have far-reaching effects on public health.

“Even without changing one regulation or one piece of guidance,” she told The New York Times, “the sharing of misinformation from a place of power is concerning.” Cohen’s concerns echo those of public health experts who worry about the indirect effects of Kennedy’s appointment on vaccine hesitancy in the US.

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With inputs from agencies