 "US presidential elections: Key races that will give early clues about House control")
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump are gearing up for a frantic final push ahead of Election Day.
While Harris will dedicate all of Monday to Pennsylvania, culminating in a late-night rally in Philadelphia featuring Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey, Trump has scheduled four rallies across three states, starting in Raleigh, North Carolina, and making two stops in Pennsylvania at events in Reading and Pittsburgh.
However, the focus will quickly shift to Tuesday when political observers from all sides will be closely monitoring the developments, eagerly awaiting early indicators of which party will take control of the next Congress.
According to The Hill report, election forecasters have identified several key contested seats— some considered toss-ups and others leaning toward one party — that will determine whether Republicans keep the majority or Democrats return to power after two years in the minority wilderness.
Many of these key races are in the Eastern time zone, where polls close first and results are typically reported quickly, though there are exceptions. For example, Pennsylvania has several tight races, but its mail-in ballot rules are likely to delay the results past Election Day. In contrast, Iowa and Nebraska, situated in the Central time zone, are expected to report their outcomes on election night, added the report.
Here are some of the races that might serve as an early indicator of which side has the edge:
Virginia’s 2nd and 7th districts
The two suburban battleground seats in Virginia could easily be divided between the parties, providing little insight into national trends. However, if one party wins both, it would signal positive momentum for that side.
Impact Shorts
More Shorts“I think most likely we split Virginia one way or another. But obviously, you start to get some wind in your sails if you could win two — either party,” The Hill quoted a Democratic strategist as saying.
In the Virginia Beach area, first-term Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is up against Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal in Virginia’s 2nd District. The GOP is confident about retaining the seat, so a loss could indicate significant Democratic gains.
Meanwhile, the 7th District is an open race following Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s decision to run for governor. Democrats are optimistic about holding the seat with Army veteran Eugene Vindman, who played a role in Trump’s first impeachment. The Republican candidate is Derrick Anderson, a former Army Green Beret.
“If we’re winning Virginia-7, or coming close to winning, we think we’re going to have a really good night," GOP strategist told The Hill.
In a sign of the importance of the state, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) campaigned with Vindman in the district late last month. And Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will stop in Virginia on Monday, the day before Election Day.
Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts
According the The Hill, two Republican incumbents in Iowa, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District and Rep. Zach Nunn in the 3rd, are facing challenging reelection bids, giving Democrats rare pickup opportunities in this GOP-dominated region.
The Cook Political Report labels both races as toss-ups.
Holding both seats would signal a strong night for Republicans, while a win for Democrats in at least one would suggest positive momentum.
Nunn, a first-term lawmaker who won with 50% of the vote in 2022, is up against Democrat Lanon Baccam, a veteran of the Afghanistan War and son of Tai Dam refugees.
Election experts note that Baccam has gained traction thanks to Harris’s recent campaign efforts, which have energised minority voters in small Midwestern cities like Des Moines, located in the 3rd District, added the report.
Democrats believe they have an even better chance against Miller-Meeks, who is in a rematch with former state representative Christina Bohannan. Miller-Meeks won her first election by just six votes in 2020 and has faced criticism from conservatives in her party, including a primary challenger this year. Additionally, Democrats are hopeful that Iowa’s strict new abortion ban will mobilize left-leaning voters for both challengers.
“Iowa-1 is probably the more likely thing,” The Hill quoted the Democratic strategist as saying. “The only thing that freaks me out about Iowa is that we’ve seen time and time again that Iowa closes towards Republicans and against Democrats. And that could happen,” he added.
Five New York districts to give early signs
Both parties will be closely monitoring New York — particularly Long Island and the Hudson Valley — on election night, as five districts with first-term Republican incumbents will provide early insights into the overall House battlefield.
Republican Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Brandon Williams are all defending seats in districts that President Biden won in 2020, making them prime targets for Democratic pickups.
“Our offensive opportunities rest in New York,” The Hill quoted the Democratic strategist as saying.
Some of those races will be more consequential indicators than others for control of the House. The GOP could retain House control while still losing some of the seats.
But for Republicans, it is crucial for Lawler to fend off a challenge by former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) if they want to keep the majority. The area, which includes Rockland County, broke for Biden by 10.1 percentage points in 2020, before Lawler secured the district by less than a point in 2022. Cook Political Report moved the district from a toss up to lean Republican in October, reported The Hill.
A Jones victory, meanwhile, could be a sign that Democrats are on the path to taking control of the lower chamber.
According to the report, New York’s 1st Congressional District is also a focus, where Rep. Nick LaLota is challenged by Democrat John Avlon.
More daunting for Republicans are New York’s 4th Congressional District, represented by Anthony D’Esposito, and the 22nd Congressional District, led by Brandon Williams. Democrats believe they can win these districts, especially since Biden secured them by margins of 14.6 and 7.4 percentage points, respectively.
Victories for Laura Gillen, D’Esposito’s opponent, and John Mannion, who is running against Williams, would signal strong momentum for the party, added the report.
However, if both incumbents manage to retain their seats, it could pose a significant obstacle for Democrats seeking a majority.
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
First-term Rep. Don Davis (D) is up against Republican Laurie Buckhout in a newly competitive district in northeastern North Carolina, which has a significant Black population. Once a Democratic stronghold, the district is now considered a toss-up.
According to The Hill, Democrats claim internal polls show Davis is safe. However, with North Carolina being a battleground state in the presidential race, the outcome in the 1st District could be influenced by the broader contest at the top of the ticket, added the report.
“Since the hurricane, Trump has really reallocated a lot of his get-out-the-vote efforts to this district, from Western North Carolina,” The Hill quoted the GOP strategist as saying.
“If Trump could push Laurie Buckhout over the edge, it also helps him win the state,” said the GOP strategist
Strategists are also looking to the district for clues about the Black vote, with trends there being more impactful in the presidential race than for House control.
Ohio’s 9th and 13th congressional districts
Two key races in Ohio could give early hints into who will control the House.
In the 9th Congressional District, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), the longest-serving woman in congressional history, is battling Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin. Trump won this district by 2.9 percentage points in 2020, making it a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans.
In the 13th Congressional District, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) is up against Republican Kevin Coughlin. Biden won this area by 2.8 percentage points in 2020, and Democrats are determined to hold onto it.
According to The Hill, citing the Cook Political Report, both seats are classified as lean Democrat, and the party is optimistic about defending them this cycle.
“We think they’re going to be OK given the numbers that we’re seeing,” the Democratic strategist was quoted as saying.
Democrats, however, will also be looking closely at the margins of victory and the voter demographics as a gauge of what to expect elsewhere. And GOP operatives say Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, gives them a downballot boost across the state.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is among the most vulnerable Republican incumbents this cycle, facing state Sen. Tony Vargas (D) in a rematch of their 2022 race. Results are anticipated on election night.
A Democratic strategist labeled the race as “a must win” for the party to have any chance of flipping control of the House.
“It’s tough to see a path to the majority without us winning Nebraska-2. I know we’ve said this every cycle, as Democrats, that we’re finally going to get Don Bacon. But I feel (better) about it than I ever have,” The Hill quoted the Democratic strategist as saying.
Vargas is getting a boost from Harris, who is leading Trump by double digits in the district. Election experts believe her presence will help mobilise Black and other minority voters in Omaha, benefiting downballot Democrats.
However, Republicans are optimistic that Bacon, who has previously faced tough races, can secure a victory in a district that Biden won in 2020.
“Once he goes back on air and reminds voters who he is, and his bipartisan bona fides, voters instantly snap back and they remember: ‘Oh, yeah. I like Don Bacon. I like what he’s done. I voted for him last time and I’m going to vote for him again,’” the Republican strategist was quoted as saying.
Maine’s 2nd District
Three-term Democrat Jared Golden is a recurring target for Republicans in Maine’s vast 2nd District, one of the most rural in the US. Despite their efforts, they haven’t succeeded in unseating the former Marine and veteran of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, who has carved out an independent identity by defying his party on key issues.
Trump won the district by 6.1 points in 2020, and with him back on the ballot, both parties will closely watch the returns for potential downballot effects.
According to The Hill, Republicans are optimistic about challenger Austin Theriault, a 30-year-old state representative and former NASCAR driver. They cite internal polls suggesting Golden is losing support among independent voters, with one GOP strategist claiming those numbers are “cratering”, added the report.
Democrats, however, are confident Golden will prevail, referencing their own polls that show a rebound in his support among Democratic voters. They assert that independents have not turned away from him.
“Golden is going to have probably the closest race he’s ever been in. I think he’s going to squeak it out, though,” the Democratic strategist told The Hill. “We haven’t seen it collapse there for him, which is encouraging.”
Maine is one of just two states with ranked-choice voting, which can lead to delays in the results. But this year, Golden and Theriault are the only two candidates on the ballot, leading campaign operatives to believe the outcome will be known before voters go to sleep.
“It’s just a head-to-head this time around, so it should be easier to call,” the Democratic strategist said.
With inputs from agencies
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