It’s Election Day in US: When will we know the final results?

The US election isn’t just near – it’s here.

Polling stations have opened in different parts of the United States where registered voters will cast their ballot either for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are battling to become the 47th president of the United States today (November 5).

And everyone has just one question.

When will we know the final results?

Let’s take a closer look:

A brief look at the polls

First, let’s examine what we know about the polls.

The US presidential election is being held today (November 5).

Each state throws open its poll per its rules – usually between 7 am (5.30 pm IST) and 9 am (7.30 pm IST) on Tuesday.

Most polls usually close between 7 pm and 11 pm on Tuesday (5.30 am IST and 9.30 am IST on Wednesday respectively). But keep in mind that the US also has multiple time zones – so these are rough estimates.

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The results of certain states – which are firmly Democratic and Republican – will be known immediately after they close their polls.

Kentucky and Oklahoma, for example, will be called for Trump as soon as they close their polls.

Ditto New York and California for Harris.

This is done based on both the initial sample of votes and looking at past historical trends.

First polls open

Election Day has officially kicked off in the United States with the state of Vermont throwing open its polls.

New Hampshire’s Dixville Notch, as per tradition, became the first town to conclude voting in the US election.

The result?

A 3-3 tie between Trump and Harris.

The small town, which has just six voters, four Republicans and two Independents, conducted its election at midnight. It managed to finish polling and counting votes in an enviable 12 minutes.

Catch our ‘live’ coverage of the US elections here .

The states that matter

Though Trump and Harris are essentially in a dead heat when it comes to national polling, that really doesn’t matter.

This is because the US elects its president via the Electoral College .

A candidate needs to hit the magic mark of 270 Electoral Votes (EVs), out of the 538 Electoral Votes available, to be elected president.

In the end, just seven swing states – Arizona (11 EVs), Michigan (15 EVs), Pennsylvania (19 EVs), Georgia (16 EVs), North Carolina (16 EVs), Nevada (6 EVs) and Wisconsin (10 EVs) – will decide who will win the election.

Experts say there’s nothing to choose between the candidates going into Election Day .

“It’s really close,” Raymond J. La Raja, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told Al Jazeera.

It all comes down to how quickly states can process and tabulate their votes.

Over 78 million Americans have already voted early as of Monday – easily surpassing the 2020 total.

But there are key differences this time.

For one, mail-in voting is thus far down massively compared to the previous presidential election.

MSNBC over the weekend reported that an estimated 75 per cent fewer mail-in ballots had been cast compared to 2020.

Remember, it was the mail-in votes – which in certain states back then could not be counted before Election Day – which caused the delay in ascertaining who actually won.

The Trump team, which was ahead in the initial count of those who voted on Election Day, were simply swamped by the overwhelming number of Democratic ballots which were mailed in.

This is because Trump in 2020 decried mail-in voting as being fraudulent.

Republicans in 2020 chose to turn up in higher numbers on Election Day, while the Democrats, in the middle of a pandemic, much preferred to vote by mail.

The ‘Red mirage’ – Trump being ahead in the votes that were counted first – thus dissipated in the ocean of the ‘Blue wave’ that came crashing down in the days after the election.

This led Trump to cry foul despite there being no evidence of fraud.

Another factor is that some of these all-important states have also changed the way votes will be counted this time.

Arizona

Polls open at 8 am (6.30 pm IST) and close at 9 pm (7.30 am IST on Wednesday).

Arizona could take its own sweet time for the final results to be declared.

As per The New York Times, the state usually votes via mail – which of course takes longer to process than in-person votes.

Though ballots arriving the Election Day are counted immediately, those votes arriving after can only be counted after the polls close.

Arizona officials say the final result could take as long as 10 to 13 days, as per the newspaper.

However, the first results are expected to be reported at about 10 pm Tuesday (8:30 am Wednesday, IST), one hour after the polls close.

Michigan

In Michigan, polls opened at 7 am (5.30 pm IST) and will close at 8 and 9 pm (6.30 am and 7.30 am IST on Wednesday).

As per Al Jazeera, Michigan, this time, could have a result faster than it did in 2020. This is because state officials have changed the laws allowing mail-in ballots to be counted before the day of the election.

But with mail-in voting nowhere nearly as popular this year compared to 2020, that might not help much.

However, a result is not expected until the end of Wednesday.

Pennsylvania

In the state, polls opened at 7 am (5.30 pm IST) and will close at 8 pm (6.30 am IST on Wednesday).

In 2020, Pennsylvania was an utter mess. Like last time, workers under the law cannot begin counting mail ballots until Election Day, as per The New York Times.

However, the state has since invested in new technology.

It also mandates most counties to count mail ballots continuously after the polls close – through the night if needs be.

Pennsylvania is unlikely to render a result on the election night. It may take at least 24 hours before enough votes are counted to declare a winner, according to experts.

Georgia

In Georgia, the polls opened at 7 am (5.30 pm IST) and will close at 7 pm (5.30 am IST on Wednesday).

BBC quoted experts as saying that 75 per cent of the vote will be counted within two hours (by 7.30 am IST).

According to The New York Times, Georgia overwhelmingly votes in-person early.

Vote reporting is also usually speedy.

The state is expected to see fewer mail-in ballots, which take longer to count, this time.

Expect a fast count.

North Carolina

Polls in North Carolina opened at 6.30 am (5 pm IST) and will close at 7.30 pm (6.30 am IST).

Like Georgia, North Carolina also massively favours in-person voting. Votes in North Carolina are also counted extremely speedily and a result can be expected fairly soon after polls close.

A quick result in North Carolina seems to be in the offing, possibly by then end of election night.

Nevada

Polls in Nevada will open at 9 am (7.30 pm IST) and close at 10 pm (8.30 am IST on Wednesday)

Nevada too has changed its rules to speed up the process of counting votes. Mail-in ballots are allowed in the state; they need to be sent on Election Day and received before November 9.

With late-arriving mail ballots being allowed, the final result in the state could potentially not be known for days, as per Al Jazeera.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, polls open at 8 am (6.30 IST) and shut at 9 pm (7.30 am IST on Wednessday).

Wisconsin, like Pennsylvania, does not allow its election officials to begin counting ballots till Election Day.

This means it too like  Pennsylvania could take its time to announce the results.

CNN reported that Pennsylvania’s results are not likely until Wednesday.

When will we get the results?

The first results will begin to come in around 7 pm on Tuesday (around 4.30 am IST on Wednesday).

But the final results depend on how quickly the states that matter can count votes. This means there’s no real way of telling the exact date when final results will be out.

How things played out in 2020

In 2020, the results in the key states of Pennsylvania and Nevada took days.

Arizona, which Fox News gave to Biden early, was not called for the then-Democratic nominee by other outlets for a week.

The race for US president was finally called for Biden on November 7 – four days after Election Day had passed.

Georgia, meanwhile, was not given to Biden until two weeks after Election Day.

This after a recount by hand was conducted – which confirmed Biden’s win by around 12,000 votes – which also resulted in the famous phone call by Trump to the governor of Georgia asking him to ‘find 11,000 votes.’

Trump and his allies by then had also sown doubt amongst his supporters about the outcome of the race – which ultimately led to the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol.

This time, we may well face a similar outcome as the outcome of the race is left hanging for days with Trump alternately crying foul and declaring victory.

Or we may be in for a surprise on election night aka Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney in 2012 – which left some Fox News pundits bewildered – in which what was thought to be a close race turned out to be a blowout for the sitting president.

Stay tuned and find out.

How media calls the election

Remember, in the United States, it is tradition for the media to call the winner of the US election.

From MSNBC to Fox, each media outlet has its own election analysis desk which analyses the race according to its own internal parameters.

The ‘decision desks’ predict the winner of certain states and take a call as to whom they think will be the next President of the United States.

This is after they find a candidate has crossed a sufficient threshold in the tabulated votes and have examined the number of votes that remain and in what areas.

The Associated Press is widely considered the gold standard when it comes to calling elections.

Remember, Fox News in 2020 created an uproar – both within the organisation and in the Trump campaign – after its decision desk called Arizona for Joe Biden.

The Trump team reportedly called the bigwigs at Fox to try to get the call reversed – thus keeping Trump’s election hopes alive – and even reached out to Rupert Murdoch, but were denied.

Fox’s analysis team, which called the state days before the other news outlets, was ultimately proved correct.

Biden thus became just the second Democrat in 70 years to win Arizona.

In the final tally, he beat Trump by 10,457 votes or 0.3 per cent of the nearly 3.4 million ballots cast.

With inputs from agencies

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