US Election 2024: Which are the battleground states that could decide the contest?

Nearly 240 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s US election, scheduled for November 5.

However, only a small fraction will likely determine the outcome of the presidential race.

US Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are heading towards a November showdown in one of the tightest elections in modern American history.

In key battleground states essential to the 2024 contest, there is little daylight between both candidates as the November 5 Election Day approaches.

Now, experts believe there are only a few critical “swing” states where either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump could claim victory.

A candidate must net 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win the election. However, these swing states, which shift support between Democratic and Republican, are where elections are often decided.

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The key battleground states for this election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Together, these seven states hold a total of 93 Electoral College votes in this year’s election.

In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won six of these seven states, with North Carolina being the only exception, leading to his 306-232 win over Donald Trump in the Electoral College.

Both campaigns are now focusing on undecided voters in these critical states. Each of the seven battlegrounds is highly competitive, with the race too close to call in most.

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Here’s a breakdown of the key states:

Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College votes)

With 19 Electoral College votes at stake, Pennsylvania is the most crucial of the seven battleground states in the 2024 election.

Once a Democratic stronghold, Pennsylvania has become one of the tightest contests in recent years. Donald Trump narrowly won the state by 0.7 percentage points in 2016, while Joe Biden flipped it in 2020, winning by a margin of 1.2 percentage points.

The state’s economy has long been impacted by the decline of its industrial manufacturing base, particularly in its “Rust Belt” cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Both Trump and Harris have focused heavily on the state. Trump, who survived an assassination attempt at a rally there in July, is appealing to rural white voters and warning of the impact caused by migration on small towns.

Meanwhile, Harris has promoted recent infrastructure projects and, in Pittsburgh, announced a plan to invest $100 billion in manufacturing, addressing a key issue for Pennsylvania’s electorate.

However, high inflation could be a challenge for Kamala Harris across the US, as polls indicate that voters are having an unfavourable view of the economy, according to BBC. Trump has capitalised on this, attacking Harris by linking her closely to the economic policies of the Biden administration.

Georgia (16 Electoral College votes)

Georgia remains a controversial battleground following the 2020 election.

Prosecutors indicted Donald Trump for alleged election interference in the state after he urged officials to “find” enough votes to overturn Joe Biden’s narrow win. However, the case has been delayed until after the 2024 election, giving Trump temporary relief.

In 2020, Biden became the first Democrat to win Georgia since 1992, with African-American voters, who make up a third of the state’s population, playing a crucial role in his victory.

While some disillusionment with Biden has surfaced among the Black voters, Harris hopes to claim this constituency. The campaign also believes Georgia’s shifting demographics could work in her favour, as she continues to court minority voters across the state.

North Carolina (16 Electoral College votes)

North Carolina has only voted for a Democratic once since 1980, but Kamala Harris is hopeful about its potential in the 2024 election.

With a population exceeding 10 million, North Carolina is becoming increasingly diverse, which could favour Democrats. Complicating Trump’s campaign, a scandal involving the state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate has angered party officials and raised concerns about its impact on his performance in a tight race.

Similar to neighbouring Georgia, the aftermath of Storm Helene, which recently destroyed towns in western North Carolina, may also influence voter sentiment. In a show of support, the Democrats chose to include the state’s governor, Roy Cooper, during the final night of their party convention.

Trump won North Carolina in 2020, but his margin was narrow, with just over 70,000 votes, which has since boosted the Democrats’ hopes about flipping this “purple” state.

Black voters, who make up 22 per cent of the population, will be critical in the election outcome of this state as well.

Michigan (15 Electoral College votes)

The Great Lakes state of Michigan has selected the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections. Although it supported Joe Biden in 2020, it has become a centre point for a nationwide backlash against the president’s support for Israel during the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

In February, during Michigan’s Democratic primary contest, over 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots as part of a campaign by activists urging the US government to cease military aid to Israel. Michigan also has the largest proportion of Arab-Americans in the country, a demographic whose support for Biden has been at risk.

However, Harris has adopted a firmer stance on Israel, and some protesters advocating for Gaza have expressed hopes that she will show more understanding of their situation, BBC reported.

Trump managed to flip Michigan in 2016, which was once a Democratic stronghold, defeating Hillary Clinton. Biden regained it for the Democrats in 2020, backed by support from unionised workers and a large Black community.

Now, Trump has discussed Michigan’s importance several times in his campaign for this year’s election. Regarding the situation in West Asia, he has urged Israel to finish its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, but to “get it over with fast”.

Arizona (11 Electoral College votes)

The Grand Canyon state was one of the tightest contests of 2020 with Joe Biden winning by just 10,457 votes.

This state, which shares a long border with Mexico, has become a crucial point in the nation’s immigration debate. Recent months have seen a decline in border crossings from record highs, bringing immigration issues to the forefront of voters’ concerns.

Trump is banking on frustrations with the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policies to swing Arizona back in his favour. He has also promised to carry out “the largest deportation operation” in US history if he regains the presidency.

Last week, Harris visited Arizona’s border, pledging to tighten migration controls and to revive last year’s bipartisan border bill, which she claimed Trump “tanked” for political gain.

Arizona has also seen controversial debates over abortion access, particularly after state Republicans attempted to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies. This issue has become even more divisive since the US Supreme Court overturned a landmark ruling that previously guaranteed women the constitutional right to abortion.

Among the battleground states, Arizona currently shows the largest polling advantage, with Trump leading by two percentage points.

Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes)

Wisconsin, known as the Badger State, has chosen the winning presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020, with margins of just over 20,000 votes each time. Analysts believe that third-party candidates could influence the outcome in marginal states like this.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost Wisconsin after largely ignoring the state during her campaign. However, Biden successfully flipped the state in 2020, turning a 23,000-vote deficit into a winning margin of 21,000 votes for the Democrats.

Polling indicated that independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr could have adversely affected the vote counts for both Harris and Trump, according to BBC. However, Kennedy suspended his campaign in late August and endorsed Trump.

Democrats have been actively trying to have Green Party candidate Jill Stein removed from the ballot, alleging that her party did not adhere to state election laws. They have also filed an election complaint against Cornel West, a left-leaning academic.

Trump sees Wisconsin as a winnable state, and his party even held its summer national convention there. While Trump initially had an advantage over Biden, Harris now holds a slight edge in polling.

Nevada (6 Electoral College votes)

The Silver State, with a population of 3.1 million, has not voted for a Republican since 2004. However, there are signs that the Republicans may be on the verge of a comeback. Encouraged by Trump’s appeal to Hispanic voters, the Republicans believe they can turn the tide.

Recent averages from poll-tracking firm 538 indicate that while Trump initially enjoyed a lead over Biden, that advantage has diminished since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.

Democrats had hoped that a candidate with greater appeal to younger and more diverse voters would help close the gap. In the weeks following her nomination, Harris actively promoted her economic plans aimed at supporting small businesses and addressing inflation.

Her efforts appear to have erased Trump’s earlier advantage in this western state, whose largest city Las Vegas is heavily influenced by the hospitality industry.

Both candidates are also competing to win over Nevada’s huge Latino population.

While the US economy has shown growth and jobs creation since Biden took office, the post-Covid recovery in Nevada has lagged behind other states. With an unemployment rate of 5. per cent, Nevada currently has the highest rate in the country, following California and the District of Columbia, according to the latest US government statistics.

Should Trump regain power, he has promised a return to policies focused on lower taxes for everyone and a reduction in regulations.

With inputs from AFP