Quicksplained: Who is Christophe Barraud, most ‘accurate’ economist, predicting a Trump win in US polls?

Only a week is left for the United States presidential elections on November 5. Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris is up against Republican nominee Donald Trump in a high-stakes battle.

Polls show it remains a neck-and-neck fight between the two rivals, with analysts forecasting the election to be decided by slight margins in a few key swing states. Now, an economist considered to be the world’s “most accurate” has shared his predictions.

Christophe Barraud has said the “most likely outcome” of the US presidential race is a Trump victory with a Republican sweep.

Who is the economist and what has he said? Let’s take a closer look.

1. Christophe Barraud, a French economist, is the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco. After spending time in academia, he started a career as a market economist, using his “models and methodology to the forecasting of economic statistics”, including growth, inflation and unemployment rates, according to his website.

2. Barraud, 38, has been ranked the top forecaster of the US economy for 11 of the last 12 years by Bloomberg. He also earned the top spot for the third quarter of 2024.

3. Barraud took to X on Monday (October 28) and wrote that after studying “betting markets, polls, election modellers’ forecasts, financial markets”, the most probable result was Trump winning the US presidential elections and a GOP sweep. He also shared screenshots from the election betting platform Polymarket and the regulated exchange and prediction market Kalshi.

4. In an interview with Business Insider, he predicted three possible outcomes. One is where Harris wins with a divided Congress. If this happens, not much change is expected on the economic front, he said.

5. In another scenario, former US president Trump may be triumphant with a split Congress. According to Barraud, this would limit his ability to reduce taxes for corporations and households, leading to the Republican leader possibly focusing on foreign policy, mainly trade restrictions and tariffs. This would hurt global growth and, in the long term, negatively impact the US economy as countries retaliate.

6. The third scenario, which he says is the most feasible, is a Trump win with Republicans taking control of the US Senate. The economist told Business Insider that the House of Representatives could be a closer call. If the Republican leader gets a majority, he is expected to pay more attention to domestic than foreign policy. He said a majority would also ensure Trump can cut taxes on corporations and households.

7. According to Barraud, no matter who wins, US growth will boost after the results. The US GDP growth for 2024 could be 2.7 per cent than the expected rate of 2.6 per cent. It could be roughly 2.1 per cent next year compared to the consensus forecast of 1.8 per cent, reported Business Insider.

8. Barraud’s prediction comes amid another expert forecasting a Trump victory. Top polling guru Nate Silver wrote in a guest essay in The New York Times recently that his “gut” says the former US president would win. He mentioned that his prediction model indicated the race at 50-50 for Trump and Harris, with scales tipping either way. “I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut – including mine,” Silver wrote.

9. Historian Allan Lichtman still stands by his September pick – Harris. Known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of US polling for correctly predicting the results of nine out of 10 presidential elections since 1984, he said on his YouTube channel that the Democratic candidate will win the White House but added that there is a possibility he could be wrong. We will know soon enough who will succeed Joe Biden to become the next US president.

With inputs from agencies

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