 "Trump's second term: Will he follow through on his foreign policy threats and promises?")
In the run up to the US elections, Donald Trump had claimed that he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine in 24 hours, warned that Israel would be “eradicated” if he lost the election and vowed sweeping new tariffs on Chinese imports.
Now that Trump has secured a historic second term, the world is asking: Will he follow through on his foreign policy threats and promises?
According to Reuters, though Trump has provided few specifics, his supporters believe his “peace through strength” approach and forceful personality will restore order to a world they see as “on fire,” blaming global instability on President Joe Biden’s perceived weakness.
As January approaches, both allies and adversaries are cautious, wondering if Trump’s second term will mirror the turbulence and unpredictability of his first.
His earlier presidency was marked by “America First” protectionism, isolationist rhetoric, and bold moves like withdrawing from NATO talks. At the same time, his deal-making image saw limited success with North Korea and the normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab nations.
“Donald Trump remains erratic and inconsistent when it comes to foreign policy,” Reuters quoted analysts for the European Council on Foreign Relations as writing in a blog post during the US campaign.
“Europeans are still licking their wounds from Trump’s first term: they have not forgotten the former president’s tariffs, his deep antagonism towards the European Union and Germany,” they said.
Trump and his loyalists dismiss such criticism, insisting that other countries have long taken advantage of the US and that he would put a stop to it.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsEnding the Ukraine war
Trump’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine will set the tone for his foreign policy and shape his approach to NATO and US allies, after Biden worked to repair relationships strained under Trump’s first term.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy congratulated Trump, calling his “peace-through-strength” approach a potential path to peace in Ukraine.
Trump had claimed Putin never would have invaded under his watch and insisted he could end the war in 24 hours, though he has not explained how.
Trump has criticised Biden’s Ukraine policy, suggesting the US would reassess NATO’s role under his presidency. He also proposed that Ukraine might need to cede territory for peace — an idea rejected by Kyiv and not considered by Biden.
Trump has long criticised NATO members who fail to meet military spending targets, warning during the campaign that he would not defend those “delinquent” nations and would allow Russia to act freely.
“NATO would face the most serious existential threat since its founding,” Reuters quoted Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration, as saying.
A free hand for Israel?
Trump will also confront a volatile Middle East that threatens to descend into a broader regional conflict. Israel is fighting wars in Gaza and Lebanon while facing off against arch-foe Iran, even as Yemen’s Houthis fire on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
He has expressed support for Israel’s fight to destroy Hamas in the Palestinian enclave but has said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a Trump ally widely believed to have favored his return to power, must finish the job quickly.
Trump is expected to continue arming Israel, whose existence he said would have been endangered if Harris had been elected - a claim dismissed by the Biden administration given its staunch support for Israel.
His policy toward Israel likely will have no strings attached for humanitarian concerns, in contrast to pressure that Biden applied in a limited way. Trump may give Netanyahu a freer hand with Iran.
But Trump could face a new crisis if Iran, which has stepped up nuclear activities since he abandoned a nuclear deal with Tehran in 2018, rushes to develop a nuclear weapon.
When Trump was last in the White House, he presided over the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. But those diplomatic deals did nothing to advance Palestinian statehood in the West Bank and Gaza.
Still, Trump is likely to push for historic normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, an effort initiated during his first term and which Biden has also pursued.
Mixed message on China
Trump made a tough stance toward China central to his campaign, suggesting he would ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods as part of a broader effort that could also hit products from the EU. Many economists say such moves would lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers and sow global financial instability.
He has threatened to go further than his first term when he implemented a sometimes chaotic approach to China that plunged the world’s two biggest economies into a trade war.
But just as before, Trump has presented a mixed message, describing Chinese President Xi Jinping as “brilliant" for ruling with an “iron fist”.
Trump has also insisted that Taiwan should pay the US for defense. But he has said China would never dare to invade democratically governed Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory, if he were president.
Another unknown is how Trump will craft his national security team, though many critics believe he will avoid bringing in mainstream Republicans who sometimes acted as “guardrails” in his first term.
Many former top aides, including ex-national security adviser John Bolton and his first chief of staff John Kelly, broke with him before the election, calling him unfit for office.
Trump has been quiet about whom he might appoint but sources with knowledge of the matter say Robert O’Brien, his final national security adviser, is likely to play a significant role.
Trump is expected to install loyalists in key positions in the Pentagon, State Department and CIA whose primary allegiance would be to him, current and former aides and diplomats told Reuters.
The result, they say, would enable Trump to make sweeping changes to policy as well as to federal institutions that implement - and sometimes constrain - presidential actions abroad.
With inputs from agencies
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