Trump or Harris, who will be the next US president? Betting markets say this…

The 2024 US Presidential election is getting intense and interesting as it gets closer. While polls show a neck-to-neck fight between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump, the betting markets have seen a complete transition.

According to a report by The Guardian, Trump, who was leading in the betting markets, has been overtaken by Harris on the eve of the November 5 election.  

Trump’s victory odds fade

As per the betting markets trend, Trump’s chances have diminished with Polymarket putting them at 58 per cent on Monday, down from 67 per cent last week, while Kalshi putting them at 53 per cent, down from 65 per cent.

Polymarket and Kalshi are two prominent betting apps that are in great demand on the app stores lately.

As per The Guardian report, another betting platform – PredictIt – for the first time in almost a month has priced Harris’ odds as greater than Trump’s.  

The Democrat had a 53 per cent chance of victory, PredictIt found, giving Trump a 51 per cent chance.

Betting markets have witnessed a spike in popularity during the election campaign.

Several of the betting markets forecasts for who has more chances of winning the election also derived from typical opinion polls.

Till early last week, Trump was leading in the betting markets but the gap was narrowed significantly as the day for election neared.

Trump and his allies have touted betting markets forecasts as more accurate than traditional polling in the recent weeks after the top platforms put him way ahead of Harris.

How betting in the US election works?

Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.

As the US votes in a few hours, all eyes will be on the US election result 2024 which will reveal the fate of Trump and Harris.