 "The US Capitol building is pictured, on Capitol Hill in Washington, US, April 23, 2024. File Image/Reuters")
The 2024 elections in the United States have been a milestone for Republicans, as they regained control of the White House with US President-elect Donald Trump, retook the Senate, and appear poised to retain a majority in the House of Representatives.
This Republican “trifecta” — control over the executive and both chambers of Congress — places the GOP in a unique position to implement their policy agenda with minimal interference from Democratic opposition.
Republicans now hold 53 seats in the Senate and at least 215 in the House, nearing the 218 needed for a majority, with a few races still pending. Data provider Decision Desk HQ has called the House race in favour of the Republicans.
“This historic election has proven that a majority of Americans are eager for secure borders, lower costs, peace through strength, and a return to common sense," US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La), commented on the GOP’s success. Trump’s decisive popular vote victory further solidifies his mandate, marking him as the first Republican in over two decades to win it outright.
Why GOP control in the Senate is vital
With control of the Senate, the GOP can expedite Trump’s Cabinet and judicial appointments. Unlike situations where the White House and Senate are split between parties, Trump’s nominees for critical roles, such as the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Attorney General, and Treasury Secretary, are likely to face fewer hurdles.
GOP allies, including potential appointees like Robert F Kennedy Jr and Larry Kudlow, are seen as probable picks, aligning with Trump’s policy agenda. The party’s Senate majority also reinforces Trump’s ability to shape the judiciary significantly, a legacy initiative from his first term that Republicans are eager to continue.
Under the US Constitution, the House of Representatives has the power to impeach a government official, in effect serving as prosecutor. However, the Senate has the sole power to conduct impeachment trials, essentially serving as jury and judge. Since 1789 the Senate has tried 20 federal officials which has included Trump and two other presidents.
“One of the most gratifying results of the Senate becoming Republican – the filibuster will stand," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) told reporters, ensuring that a 60-vote threshold remains necessary for passing many types of significant legislation, even in the face of a GOP trifecta.
How total GOP control will shape America
As Republicans reenter the legislative landscape with a majority, they face key policy opportunities and challenges.
Tax reform
Central to Trump’s 2017 tax reform was a $1.5 trillion tax cut that dramatically impacted the economy.
However, many provisions from that legislation, including individual tax cuts, are set to expire in 2025, reopening debate on the future of US tax policy. Republican lawmakers aim to extend tax cuts for individuals and families, including tax exemptions on tips and overtime pay, as well as maintaining or reducing corporate tax rates.
The child tax credit and deductions on state and local taxes are also topics of high-stakes negotiation, especially if Republicans secure the House with wins in high-tax states like California and New York.
Immigration & Energy
Border security and immigration reforms are also anticipated to be on the forefront.
Trump and his allies will likely pursue policies to limit illegal immigration and scale back certain regulations, especially those pertaining to energy and environmental protections.
Debt-ceiling crisis
Trump’s administration plans to expand funding cuts for federal diversity, equity, and inclusion programs while bolstering national security initiatives. Yet, some issues require bipartisan support, such as the looming debt ceiling crisis.
Set to expire at the beginning of 2025, Congress will have to decide whether to raise the debt limit to prevent the US from defaulting on its obligations, an issue that could strain relations even within Republican ranks.
Judicial appointments
Trump’s renewed influence over the federal judiciary could reshape the court system for years. During his first term, with the support of a Republican-led Senate, he successfully appointed 234 federal judges, including three Supreme Court justices.
Now, with a Senate majority, the GOP has the ability to confirm Trump’s nominees without extensive resistance, potentially creating an outright majority on the Supreme Court aligned with Trump’s policies.
Abortion ban & ACA
With total control, the GOP faces scrutiny over key social issues. Although Trump and other Republican leaders have pledged to avoid imposing a federal abortion ban, they may face pressure from evangelical and conservative base members who advocate for restrictions.
Polls indicate that a majority of Americans, including roughly two-thirds of Republicans, oppose a federal ban on abortion, positioning the issue as a potential test of the GOP’s promise to avoid national-level restrictions.
Also Read | What will Trump’s second term mean for abortion rights?
Democrats are likely to hold Republicans to account on their pledge not to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which has gained wide popularity in recent years. Although Republicans have previously aimed to repeal it, they now suggest they may attempt changes only if they reduce costs and expand coverage.
Defence spending
Additionally, funding battles loom for Congress, including defence spending. The Senate Armed Services Committee, now under Republican leadership, seeks to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, aligning with Trump’s “peace through strength” doctrine.
While Republicans hold the reins in the Senate, party leaders have affirmed their commitment to preserving the filibuster, a procedural rule requiring a 60-vote supermajority to close debate on most bills.
A ‘united’ Republican party crucial
The Republican trifecta places Trump in a position of considerable power, enabling him to pursue his legislative and policy agenda with fewer constraints. This victory ratifies the iron grip on the Republican Party and the potency of his MAGA ideology and coalition, political analysts observe.
Yet, Trump’s success will depend on maintaining support from within the Republican Party and navigating the challenges posed by procedural requirements like the filibuster. The outcomes of these efforts could shape American policy and the nation’s direction for years to come.
In the months ahead, Trump’s administration will face the responsibility of transforming their campaign promises into actionable policies.
With inputs from agencies
Anmol is a Senior Sub-Editor with Firstpost. He likes to cover stories that intrigue him, generally revolving around international polity, Indian foreign policy, human interest, environment and even the politically-charged election cycles in India. He has far too many disparate interests with a constant itch for travel. Having visited fourteen states in the Indian subcontinent, he is always on the lookout for opportunities to add more to the list. He enjoys watching Football, Tennis and F1 purely as a sports enthusiast.