 "Is Iowa turning Blue? Harris takes surprise lead in voter survey over Trump in safe Republican state")
With just a few days left in the highly-anticipated US presidential elections, a poll in Iowa has unexpectedly put US Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead against Former President Donald Trump in regard to who is more likely to win the state. The recent figures have taken American pollsters by surprise because initially, Iowa was expected to be a safe state for the Republicans.
The Selzer Poll, which was conducted by the Des Moines Register newspaper showed Harris ahead of her Republican rival by three points. It is pertinent to note that the midwestern state of Iowa is not one of the seven battleground states for the 2024 election. The state voted for Trump both in 2016 and 2020.
While polling experts are not putting much weight on one single poll, Selzer is touted as a respected polling organisation with a good record in Iowa. The latest poll has Harris over Trump by 47 per cent to 44 per cent among likely voters. Meanwhile, a September poll from the same organisation showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June survey showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate President Joe Biden.
Will Iowa turn blue?
While it is too early to predict if the state of Iowa will turn blue or not, the latest figures have taken many by surprise. “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told the Register. “She has clearly leapt into a leading position.” Interestingly, the poll mentioned that women are driving the late shift towards Harris in the state.
Shortly after the poll was released, the reaction among pundits and pollsters was largely one of shock and surprise. However, it was also pointed out that a rival polling group still had Trump leading in Iowa. “This is a stunning poll. But Ann Seltzer [sic] has as stellar a record as any pollster of forecasting election outcomes in her state. Women are powering this surge. Portents for the country?” said David Axelrod, a former top aide to former US President Barack Obama.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsIowa Poll: Kamala Harris pulls ahead in state Donald Trump won twice
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 2, 2024
This is a stunning poll. But Ann Seltzer has as stellar a record as any pollster of forecasting election outcomes in her state.
Women are powering this surge. Portents for the country?? https://t.co/CNJfcQKXja
“I mean, margins of error exist and polls can be outliers and I doubt Harris will win Iowa, but Selzer is extremely well-regarded and a within-the-margin race in Iowa is not impossible particularly if the reported late shifts to Harris were real,” said Washington Post columnist Philip Bump in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Yeah, I mean margins of error exist and polls can be outliers and I doubt Harris will win Iowa but Selzer is extremely well-regarded and a within-the-margin race in Iowa is not impossible particularly if the reported late shifts to Harris were real. https://t.co/V5ZTqyDPas
— Philip Bump (@pbump) November 2, 2024
It is important to note that the Selzer is the highest-rated pollster on the national US survey which is done by famous Nate Silver. “In the world where Harris wins Iowa, she is probably also cleaning up elsewhere in the midwest, particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, in which case she’s already almost certain to win the electoral college,” Silver said on his website.
Selzer has Harris *ahead* in Iowa.https://t.co/H0bQUOSJ1b pic.twitter.com/TcPxNF7oWC
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2024
However, the sports enthusiast-turned-election forecaster warned that the Emerson Poll, which was published on Saturday put the former US president up by nine points in the state compared with Harris. “It is incredibly gutsy to release this poll. It won’t put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump. But wouldn’t want to play poker against Ann Selzer,” Silver exclaimed.
With inputs from agencies.
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