Will Indian-Americans pick Kamala Harris or Donald Trump this election?

With the United States presidential election on November 5 looming, the Indian-American vote is being closely scrutinised as this highly influential demographic could play a pivotal role in deciding the outcome.

A new survey reveals significant trends and shifts within this community, whose political support has been historically Democratic but now displays a small but noteworthy drift towards Republican former US President Donald Trump.

The “2024 Indian-American Attitudes Survey” (IAAS), published shortly before Election Day, reveals a mix of steadfast Democratic support alongside emerging Republican sympathy, particularly among younger Indian-American men — a shift that could signal evolving political priorities within this fast-growing community.

Are Indian-Americans choosing Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

According to the IAAS, 61 per cent of Indian-American respondents support Democratic candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris, while 31 per cent intend to vote for Donald Trump — a noticeable rise from the 22 per cent who supported him in 2020.

However, Harris’s support among Indian-Americans has dipped from the 68 per cent who backed Joe Biden four years ago, signalling a potential challenge for Democrats to retain their traditionally strong grip on this demographic.

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In a broader sense, Indian-American political affiliations are displaying gradual changes. The percentage of Indian-Americans identifying as Democrats has fallen to 47 per cent from 56 per cent in 2020, while Republican affiliation has remained stable, and the number of self-identified independents has risen.

Still, those who lean Democrat remain the majority, comprising 57 per cent of respondents, although this too has declined from 66 per cent in 2020.

Survey co-authors Devesh Kapur, Milan Vaishnav, and Sumitra Badrinathan analysed responses from a nationally representative sample of 714 Indian-American citizens. Their findings underline a unique pattern: younger Indian-American men born in the US show higher Republican support than their foreign-born, naturalised counterparts.

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This shift, occurring primarily among those under 40, signals a generational change within this traditionally liberal demographic.

Voting preferences of Indian-Americans divided by gender & age gaps

One of the most striking findings in the survey is the emergence of a pronounced gender gap among Indian-American voters. Among women, 67 per cent support Harris, while only 22 per cent favour Trump. Among men, Harris’s support declines to 53 per cent, with Trump garnering 39 per cent.

The gap is even more prominent in younger voters: 48 per cent of Indian-American men under 40 favour Trump, while 44 per cent support Harris — marking the first time in recent history that a larger share of younger Indian men favours a Republican candidate.

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This gender gap extends across age groups: for Indian-Americans over 40, 70 per cent of women and 60 per cent of men support Harris, with both groups showing more conservative leanings as age decreases. For younger Indian-American women under 40, however, the majority, or 60 per cent, remain in favor of Harris.

“The headline finding of the 2024 IAAS is that Indian Americans remain deeply connected to the Democratic Party but less so since 2020,” the authors observe. “Six in ten Indian-American citizens plan to vote in favouur of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris… However, the Republican Party has made modest inroads, evidenced by the uptick in support for Donald Trump.”

Key issues that are driving Indian-American voters

Economic concerns, inflation, and job security stand as the top priority for Indian-American voters, with 17 per cent ranking inflation and prices as their most important issues, followed by 13 per cent citing jobs and the economy.

The issue of abortion and reproductive rights has emerged as a significant concern, particularly among Democrats and women, marking it as the second-most important issue for 13 per cent of Indian-American respondents.

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Interestingly, only 4 per cent of respondents prioritise US-India relations as their top issue, although it remains a notable factor in this election cycle given the current geopolitical climate.

Additional concerns among Indian-American voters include healthcare, climate change, civil liberties, and immigration, with Republicans highlighting economic issues while Democrats focus more on abortion and reproductive rights.

Why the Indian-American community is important in the US

Indian-Americans have consistently held one of the highest socioeconomic statuses in the US, with a median annual household income of $153,000 — double the national average. This elevated economic standing has helped establish the Indian-American community as a coveted electoral target for both Democrats and Republicans.

Given the group’s demographic growth, particularly in key swing states with close races, campaigns from both parties have ramped up efforts to capture their vote.

Approximately 5.2 million Indian-Americans live in the US today, making them the second-largest immigrant group in the country, with 2.6 million eligible to vote. A significant majority of this population, 96 per cent, is likely to vote, making them a reliable and influential voting bloc.

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The survey also finds that naturalised Indian-American citizens lean more heavily towards Harris, with 67 per cent support compared to just 24 per cent for Trump. Among US-born Indian-Americans, Harris’s support declines to 53 per cent, while 39 per cent favour Trump.

Religious affiliation appears to influence political leanings as well. Among Hindu Indian-Americans, 58 per cent support Harris, with 35 per cent backing Trump. This Democratic lead is even stronger among non-Hindu Indian-Americans, with 62 per cent favouring Harris and only 27 per cent supporting Trump.

How Indian-Americans view Republican & Democratic parties

When examining Indian-Americans’ perspectives on the two major parties, the survey indicates that many Indian-Americans feel out of alignment with the Republican Party due to its perceived intolerance towards minorities, its stance on abortion, and ties to Christian evangelicalism.

“Although Indian-Americans hold a dim view of many prominent Republican leaders, the party’s disadvantage with Indian-Americans goes beyond personalities,” the report suggests.

Prominent Republican Indian-American figures like Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Usha Vance are viewed unfavourably, especially by Democrats who rate them lower than Republicans view leading Democrats, reflecting a trend of asymmetric polarisation.

Despite these reservations, the survey reveals a gradual yet significant trend of Asian-Americans, including Indian-Americans, leaning slightly more Republican — a shift also visible in the broader non-White voting population.

The elevated attention on the Indian-American vote in 2024 is partially due to Kamala Harris’s presence on the ballot as a candidate of Indian heritage. “While Harris has long identified as an African-American woman, she also acknowledges and embraces her Indian heritage,” the report notes.

If elected, Harris would become the first US president of South Asian descent.

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With inputs from agencies