 "If US polls are as tight as pollsters say, then watch out for these votes")
Even as the US Election Day has arrived, there is no definitive lead with either Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or her Republican rival Donald Trump.
In national as well as swing states polls, Harris and Trump are virtually tied on the eve of the Election Day.
In the modern US history, there has never been such a close election when findings of polls in all swing states are within margins of error, according to Nate Cohn, the Chief Political Analyst at The New York Times.
“Across the key battlegrounds collectively or nationwide, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point. Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes,” noted Cohn in an article.
In such a close race, the election result would likely boil down to few key demographics and states.
Who are Indian-Americans voting for?
The Indian-Americans have emerged as a powerful bloc in US politics whom both parties have tried to woo in recent years.
This year, the bloc is under increased spotlight as one of the candidates, Harris, is of Indian heritage. The majority continues to support Democrats, even more so this time because Harris is the candidate.
As per the latest Carnegie-YouGov poll, 61 per cent of Indian-American voters support Harris compared to 32 per cent supporting Trump.
Overall, economy-related concerns of inflation, prices, and jobs are the top concerns, followed by abortion and reproductive rights, as per the survey.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe issue that keeps the Republicans away from Indian-Americans are the party’s stand on minorities, the stance on abortion, and ties to Christian evangelicalism, according to the survey.
A clear gender-gap in election
The gender-gap between men and women is the widest it has been in recent history.
As Trump and his far-right base have continued their assault on abortion and reproductive rights and Trump, women have converged around Harris.
This has further been helped by years of Trump’s sexist and misogynist conduct where he has boasted of grabbing women “by their pussy” and continued to feature gendered attacks on political rivals. His history of allegations of sexual violence has also worked against him among women.
Overall, 53 per cent of women support Harris compared to 45 of men, according to the ABC News/Ipsos poll released on the eve of the Election Day.
Which way are swing states leaning?
Trump and Harris are essentially tied in swing states which will likely decide the elections.
In the final Times/Sienna poll, Harris improved her position in North Carolina and Georgia and Trump eroded her lead in Pennsylvania and maintained his advantage in Arizona.
Here is how things stand:
Michigan : Trump +1
Pennsylvania : Tied
Wisconsin : Harris +3
Arizona : Trump + 4
Nevada : Harris + 3
Georgia : Harris + 1
North Carolina : Harris + 3
The latest ABC/Ipsos poll on the eve of the Election Day showed Trump ahead in some key swing states with the two candidates deadlocked in Pennsylvania.
Will Hispanics decide the election?
The Spanish-speaking Hispanic voters have emerged as a key bloc. They comprise around 19 per cent of the US population.
While the bloc has traditionally voted for Democrats, Trump has made inroads lately. It remains to be seen if the inroads are enough to flip the bloc.
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