Has Trump made US world's worst tourism destination this year?

The United States is bracing for a substantial decline in tourism revenue, projected to lose $12.5 billion in 2025, marking a 7 percent drop year-on-year, according to exclusive data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), Bloomberg reported.

Visitor spending is anticipated to fall below $169 billion by year’s end, reflecting a 22 per cent decline since the peak in 2019, making the US the only nation among 184 analysed to see a projected decrease in tourism income.

Julia Simpson, president and chief executive of WTTC, highlighted the severity of the issue: “Other countries are really rolling out the welcome mat, and it feels like the US is putting up a ‘we are closed’ sign at their doorway.” Simpson emphasised that the ramifications could be severe given tourism’s significant economic footprint, with the sector accounting for nearly $2.6 trillion, or 9 per cent of the US economy, employing 20 million people and contributing approximately $585 billion annually in taxes.

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Are Trump’s policies, stances bad for tourism?

Several factors contribute to this downturn. Lingering Covid-era travel restrictions initiated during the Biden administration initially deterred international travellers. However, the persistently strong dollar has amplified the cost barriers, notably discouraging key visitor groups from Japan and Europe. Simpson added, “The Japanese used to visit the US a lot, but the strong dollar made it quite an expensive place… Same with Europeans.”

Moreover, sentiment shifts influenced by the current administration’s “America First” rhetoric and related immigration policies are exacerbating tourism woes. Recent data from the US Department of Commerce shows significant declines in arrivals from major markets: visits from the UK dropped 15 percent year-over-year in March, while German visits plunged 28 per cent, and South Korean arrivals fell 15 per cent. Markets such as Spain, Ireland, and the Dominican Republic reported declines between 24 and 33 per cent.

The impact is particularly stark in major gateways and border regions. New York City revised its 2025 forecast downward, anticipating 400,000 fewer tourists and a $4 billion decline in revenue compared to the previous year. Although domestic visits are set to rise modestly, international visitors, who spend more and stay longer, will decrease sharply.

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Governor Kathy Hochul indicated similar challenges in upstate regions, particularly near the Canadian border, where 66 per cent of businesses reported significant drops in Canadian bookings due to President Donald Trump’s “51st state” comments and increased tariffs. As a result, about 26 per cent of these businesses have already adjusted staffing levels.

WTTC now forecasts it could take until at least 2030 for US tourism to rebound to pre-pandemic levels. Proposed legislative changes, such as increasing the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) fee from $21 to $40, threaten to compound difficulties.

Can US tourism numbers bounce back?

Simpson remains optimistic but warns, “The thing about tourism is it’s extremely resilient…If you push the right buttons, it will bounce back. But increasing the cost of an ESTA will only deter people further.”

Meanwhile, competitor nations, including India, China, and those in the Middle East, are capitalising on simplified visa processes and attractive policies, further intensifying the competition the US faces in reviving its travel industry.