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As millions rush to polling stations on the final day of voting in the intense US Presidential elections, Americans have already started to determine the likely outcomes in local and national polls. One tool which is crucial to that process is the exit polls, which are usually conducted as voters leave the polling station.
While polls ahead of the election day feature “likely voters,” exit polls only carry the records of people who have voted in the country. The data from these polls help many understand what results will look like as the election night progresses. While these are not official numbers, they at least give a sense of which candidates could lead in the polls.
As figures from exit polls pour in, here’s a look at how they work and what is the significance of that tool.
Who conducts exit polls?
According to NBC News, Edison Research has been conducting exit polls since 2003. The polls are usually done on behalf of the National Election Poll, which is a group that comprises American news outlets like ABC News, CBS News, CNN and NBC News.
These four networks pool together their resources to conduct one exit poll operation. Following the data collection, each organization independently analyzes and reports results from the polls.
How does this work?
In their latest guidelines, Edison Research elucidated that the polls are conducted using one of three methods. They are as follows:
For by-mail voters, Edison Research says it reaches them through phone, email and text.
For in-person early voters, interviewers are stationed outside polling places to ask these survey questions in person.
The same process as above is followed for election day voters.
The research agency maintained that the exit polls and there is no way to link answers to an exit poll to a specific person. Several questions are asked when the interviewers conduct exit polls. These include who they voted for president and their votes for candidates among other local and statewide races.
There are some broad questions that are asked as well, i.e. “What is the most important issue to your vote?” Apart from this, voters are also asked to answer demographic questions like race, age and gender.
According to NBC News, around 20,000 interviews are being conducted on election day for this year’s national polls. Moreover, this total number includes 1,500-2,500 respondents in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin, respectively.
In 2020, Edison Research noted that it has managed to reach more than 100,000 voters, including 30,000 people by phone, before the polling day.
Hence, it will be interesting to see who will be ahead in this year’s exit polls.
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