Harris ahead of Trump in early voting but her campaign fears 'blue wall' may crumble

With just 14 days until the November 5 election, early voting numbers show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump. A tracker maintained by the University of Florida reports that nearly 17 million people have already voted, with early voting underway across more than half of US states.

So far, Democrats are leading with 45.3 per cent of early votes, while Republicans account for 33.4 per cent, according to data from 24 states by party registration.

This trend aligns with previous patterns. A study by the MIT Election Data and Science Lab found that 60 per cent of Democrats cast their ballots by mail in 2020, compared to only 32 per cent of Republicans.

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Early trends show good news Democrats

An NBC News poll last month indicated that half of registered voters planned to vote early in this election, with 61 per cent expressing support for Harris.

The demographic breakdown of early voters shows that the majority are aged 65 and over (49 per cent), followed by those in the 41-65 age bracket at 34.9 per cent.

Young voters aged 18-25 constitute only 5.2 per cent of early voters. Additionally, women are leading among early voters at 54.2 per cent, while men make up 44.3 per cent.

Fears of ‘Blue Wall’ crumbling

Despite these encouraging numbers, there are concerns within Harris’ campaign about the stability of the “blue wall” states—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—that have historically been pivotal for Democratic victories.

Internal discussions have focused on the possibility that part of this blue wall may not hold. Sources familiar with the campaign’s strategy told NBC that there are worries that Michigan or Wisconsin could “fall” to Trump, even if Harris secures Pennsylvania.

Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or two.

The last time the blue wall did not vote in unison was in 1988, when Michael Dukakis won Wisconsin but lost Pennsylvania and Michigan.

As both campaigns intensify their efforts in these crucial states, the Harris team is reallocating resources and ramping up voter outreach to prevent any potential cracks in the blue wall.