From ChatGPT to viral hippo Moo Deng, all the predictions for the US elections

As the 2024 US presidential election begins, the suspense surrounding the race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican challenger Donald Trump is intensifying.

Amid this high-stakes scenario, a diverse array of forecasters—ranging from an established economist to advanced AI tools and even the whimsical predictions of the famed baby hippo, Moo Deng—are offering their insights on who might emerge victorious.

Here’s a look at what these varied voices have to say about the election’s potential outcome.

The economist’s insight

Christophe Barraud, hailed as the “world’s most accurate economist,” has made a bold prediction: a Donald Trump victory alongside a Republican majority of Congress.

Drawing on insights from betting markets, polling, and financial trends, Barraud, who serves as Chief Economist at Market Securities Monaco, has identified a Republican “clean sweep” as the most likely outcome. He shared this forecast in a recent post on X.

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🇺🇸 #USElection2024 | Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers' forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are:

1️⃣ #Trump victory

2️⃣ #GOP clean sweep

*Polymarket: https://t.co/wHYuypGbPm

*Kalshi:… pic.twitter.com/RV2DlCw9Ft

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) October 28, 2024

Renowned for his consistent forecasting accuracy over the past 12 years, Barraud anticipates immediate economic gains if Trump returns to the White House. However, he cautions about potential long-term fiscal challenges, particularly concerning a growing deficit.

While Barraud is confident in Trump’s chances, he also notes that a Kamala Harris victory would likely result in a divided Congress, perpetuating the current state of political gridlock.

Also read: Quicksplained: Who is Christophe Barraud, most ‘accurate’ economist, predicting a Trump win in US polls?

Chat GPT and Google’s Gemini

Taking on the mantle of ‘AI Nostradamus,’ OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini have offered their unique perspectives—or lack thereof—on the US elections.

ChatGPT proposed a cryptic and poetic alternative. Rather than predicting a straightforward victory for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the AI suggested a that “a dark horse would rise from the shadows to take power."

It added, “But in the final hour, a twist unforeseen, neither may claim the throne of serene. A name unspoken in many a tale will rise to power, beyond the pale. Though Trump and Kamala shall fight with might, another will lead, emerging from the night."

Also read: A Trump presidency may mean trouble for ChatGPT & other 'woke' AI models, thanks to Elon Musk

Google’s Gemini AI avoided making any election-related predictions. When prompted, Gemini simply redirected users to a Google Search link, stating, “I can’t help with responses on elections and political figures right now.”

The ‘Nostradamus’ of US elections

Allan Litchman, known for his track record of poll predictions has predicted a win for Vice President Kamala Harris this election.

In an interview with NDTV, Lichtman said,  “Yes, we are going to have Kamala Harris, a new path-breaking president, the first woman president and the first president of mixed African and Asian descent. It is kind of foreshadowing where America is going. We are rapidly becoming a majority-minority country. Old white guys like me, we are on the decline."

Lichtman’s prediction model is distinct in its approach, focusing on historical patterns rather than campaign strategies or demographic analyses. This model has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, even in cases where his predictions contradicted popular opinion.

Also read: Exclusive: 'Nostradamus' Allan Lichtman on how he uses 13 keys to predict US elections

Baby hippo Moo Deng

Moo Deng, the viral pygmy hippo from a Thailand zoo, has thrown its weight behind Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race.

In a playful yet crucial test, the two-month-old hippo was called out of the water to make its prediction. Presented with two watermelons, each bearing the name of a candidate carved in the local language, Moo Deng rushed to the one with the Republican candidate’s name.

BABY HIPPO MOO DENG PICKS TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT – WATERMELON DOESN’T LIE!

In a bold move, Thailand’s cutest political analyst, baby hippo Moo Deng, snubbed Kamala for a Trump-labeled watermelon at Khao Kheow Open Zoo.

This two-month-old “bouncy pig” didn’t hesitate, chomping… pic.twitter.com/zFRZG4si4w

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 4, 2024

Interestingly, another hippo, participating alongside Moo Deng, chose the watermelon marked for Kamala Harris.

The event quickly garnered attention online. A user humorously posted on X, “This is the only poll that matters! Trump gets the W!!! Moo Deng has SPOKEN.”

Animal election predictions have become a popular trend. Previously, a dog named Joy selected Donald Trump, while a squirrel named Gnocchi Jr predicted Kamala Harris as the winner.

Poll guru Nate Silver

Renowned pollster and statistician Nate Silver has announced his final prediction for the upcoming White House race, declaring it a “pure toss-up."

In a recent Silver Bulletin, he suggested that former President Donald Trump holds a 51.5 per cent chance of victory, while Vice President Kamala Harris is close behind at 48.1 per cent. This assessment is informed by the latest battleground polls from Morning Consult and The New York Times.

According to the NYT/Sienna polls, Kamala Harris leads in four of the seven key swing states. However, the Morning Consult poll indicates a slight advantage for Trump, as he emerges ahead in three battleground areas.

Silver cautions, “Now it’s important to note that polling error runs in both directions, and it’s pretty much impossible to predict which way it will go ahead of time. Harris could beat her polls or we could be in for a third Trump miss. But both scenarios have one thing in common: they’d turn election night into a relative blowout."

With input from agencies