Foreign interest in US presidential election: Who wants whom to win

The world’s biggest power is all set to go to polls this November. Apart from the United States, several countries in the world will be looking forward to seeing who will emerge as the winner of the Oval Office. The contenders in the race, former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have their own inclination and plans in regards to the US foreign policy.

Hence, several nations around the world will see which candidate will win the polls and if they can gain any benefit from it. Since the 2016 elections, there have been several brewing allegations of election interference by foreign nations. During the 2024 race, world leaders did not shy away from picking their favourites. With all that in mind, here’s a look at who wants whom to win the presidential race.

Iran

On Thursday, a grand jury indicted multiple Iranians on charges related to hacking former US President Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. The indictment came weeks after FBI and other US agencies said that Iranian hackers sent then-Democratic candidate and current US President Joe Biden’s campaign information stolen from rival Trump.

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While there was no indication that any of the recipients in Biden’s campaign team responded to the proposition, the officials said several media organisation was approached over the summer with leaked and stolen information. After the news stirred headlines, Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign called the emails from Iran “unwelcome and unacceptable malicious activity” that was received by only a few people who regarded them as spam or phishing attempts.

In a separate interview, Harris made it clear that neither her nor Biden’s campaign acknowledged any of the emails. While the move was identified as an effort to tip the race against former president Donald Trump, a New York Times report suggested that Iranian efforts targeted both Biden and Harris.

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Earlier this week, Trump’s campaign also said that the former president was briefed by US intelligence on threats from Iran to assassinate him. With Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian eying to rebuild ties with the West and especially the US, the latest reports do not go well with his endeavours.

Russia

On September 5, Russian Vice President Vladimir Putin said that he wants Vice President Kamala Harris to win the November race. Putin also joked that Harris “laughs so expressively and infectiously” and that perhaps this indication of her good humour would mean she wouldn’t impose sanctions on Russia, Tass reported.

However, days after the proclamation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Sky News that Putin was “joking” when he said that Moscow wants the Democratic presidential nominee to win. “It was a joke,” Lavrov said when asked how much the change in US president would affect Russia’s foreign policy. “President Putin has a good sense of humour. He often jokes during his statements and interviews."

“I see no long-term differences in our attitude to the current or previous elections in the United States because it is ruled by the notorious ‘deep state’,” he added. It is pertinent to note that during the 2016 presidential race, Russia was accused of election interference.

Trump, who won the race at that time, has been notoriously inclined towards Putin. He went on to describe the Russian leader as “smart” on several occasions. Hence, if the GOP nominee follows through with his plans regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, a Trump win will be a boon for the Kremlin.

Ukraine

Speaking of the war, it is not hidden that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shares strong ties with the Biden administration. The current US government have splurged billions in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has often engaged in a war of words with Trump. Ukraine might like to see Harris as the POTUS since Trump’s proposed peace plan is seen as detrimental to the war-stricken nation.

The aforementioned facts also worry the Republicans as well. In a public letter on Wednesday, US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson demanded that Ukraine fire its ambassador to Washington, Oksana Markarova, after Zelenskyy’s controversial visit to an ammunition plant.

He complained that Markarova had organised the visit to the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant as a “partisan campaign event designed to help Democrats”.

The accusation by the Republicans became ripe since the event was attended by the Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who has campaigned in support of Kamala Harris. “The facility was in a politically contested battleground state, was led by a top political surrogate for Kamala Harris, and failed to include a single Republican because – on purpose – no Republicans were invited,” Johnson wrote in a letter on congressional letterhead addressed to the Ukrainian embassy.

With Trump and Zelenskyy scheduled to meet on Friday, it will be interesting to see if the meeting changes the dynamics between the two world leaders.

China

In a conference call about foreign election interference efforts organized by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, several federal officials accused China of using artificial intelligence to create content designed to deceive Americans ahead of November polls.

“The IC considers AI a malign influence accelerant, not yet a revolutionary influence tool. In other words, information operations are the threat, and AI is an enabler,” said an official of the intelligence director’s office. The official asked not to be named as a condition for participating in the call. “Thus far, the IC has not seen it revolutionize such operations,” he said.

The confirmation came just months after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in April that the US has seen evidence of Chinese attempts to “influence and arguably interfere” with the upcoming US elections, despite an earlier commitment from leader Xi Jinping not to do so. “We have seen, generally speaking, evidence of attempts to influence and arguably interfere, and we want to make sure that that’s cut off as quickly as possible,” Blinken told CNN.

However, it is not clear exactly who China will support in this election since both the Democrats and the Republicans have maintained a hard stance in regard to China. The Biden administration, including Harris, worked towards restricting China to get import American parts to formulate semiconductor chips. Trump, on the other hand, focussed on balancing the trade deficit between China and the US during his time in office.

Many believe that what China looks for when spying on other nations is “access to information” which they can eventually use to to make others vulnerable.

With all this in mind, it will be interesting to see how the presidential race will play out.