 "Socks depicting Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump are displayed for sale in a gift shop in Washington. Reuters")
Assassination attempts, dropping out of the incumbent, celebrity endorsements, and a whole lot of misinformation — the 2024 US presidential election cycle has been a rollercoaster ride. And it all comes down to tomorrow — November 5 — for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party.
The big question that everyone seems to be asking is will the United States get its first woman president or will it be a second Donald Trump term? That answer will only be known after the November 5 polls.
And this race to the finish line is tighter than ever. Harris and Trump are neck and neck with opinion polls unable to provide a clear image of a winner post-November 5.
So, what do the polls say? Who’s ahead? Who’s leading? Will Trump emerge victorious or will Kamala Harris have proved that the US is finally ready for a woman president?
We reveal the latest — with just one day to go for the polls.
AtlasIntel poll bodes well for Trump
If the opinion poll conducted by AtlasIntel is to be believed, then Donald Trump would emerge victorious post-November 5, as it reveals that the former US president is leading against Harris in all seven swing states , though the margins are tiny.
The survey reveals that Trump has garnered 52.3 per cent support to Harris’ 45.8 per cent in Arizona; 51.2 per cent support from likely voters to Harris’ 46 per cent in Nevada; 50.5 per cent support to Harris’ 47.1 per cent in North Carolina.
In Georgia, Trump has a 50.1 per cent lead to 47.6 per cent over Harris; 49.7 per cent to 48.2 per cent in Michigan, 49.6 per cent to 47.8 per cent in Pennsylvania; and 49.7 per cent to 48.6 per cent in Wisconsin.
The poll reveals that Trump has secured a lead of 49 per cent to 47.2 per cent over Harris overall.
Interestingly, AtlasIntel, as per its own claims, was the most accurate during the 2020 US presidential elections and predicted the outcomes in every swing state successfully.
NYT/Siena College poll reveals too tight a race
According to the final New York Times/Siena College poll, the race to the White House is tighter than ever. The opinion poll showed Vice President Harris with slight leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin and former President Trump just ahead in Arizona. The two are in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
The poll reveals that around 40 per cent of the respondents had already cast their vote and Harris was leading among those voters by eight percentage points. However, the poll revealed that Trump was leading among those who were yet to cast their ballot.
Notably, the NYT poll revealed that Trump was gaining momentum in Pennsylvania where Harris has had a lead of four percentage points until now.
Harris, Trump tied at 49 per cent
The final national NBC poll on Sunday showed the two candidates — Trump and Harris — tied at 49 per cent each. The NBC poll is relatively unchanged from October, where it had revealed that both candidates were tied at 48 per cent each.
The poll showed that what could push Harris over the finish line is rising Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead on the issue of abortion and that she appears to be the better candidate for the middle class.
However, what could be the deciding factor for Trump is that two-thirds of voters believe that the US is headed in the wrong direction and Trump’s double-digit advantage on the economy and the cost of living.
An Iowa shocker
Perhaps, one of the biggest shockers right before the election is one poll in Iowa, traditionally a Republican state. The final Iowa poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris holds 47 per cent to former President Donald Trump’s 44 per cent among likely voters.
This is a substantial shift toward Harris; in September, the polls revealed that 47 per cent of likely voters backed Trump to 43 per cent for Harris.
Iowa has had a mixed record of voting in the past four presidential elections; in 2008 and 2012 it went blue for Barack Obama. However, it turned Republican again in 2016 and 2020, with Donald Trump winning it.
The new poll finds women in the state largely favour Harris over Trump, 56 per cent to 36 per cent, while men support Trump by a narrower margin, 52 per cent to 38 per cent.
However, Donald Trump has disputed this poll, with Trump writing on his Truth Social network, “No President has done more for farmers, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT.”
Trump continued: “I love the farmers, and they love me. And they trust me.” More than 85 per cent of Iowa’s land is used for farming and it produces more corn, pigs, eggs, ethanol and biodiesel than any other state.”
Other poll pundits believe that if Harris is able to remain competitive in the state, it would change the US election race quite significantly.
The final push
Today is the last day for Trump and Harris as the country goes to the polls on November 5. In these final hours, both candidates are doing all they can to get that final boost.
And in that vein, Harris on Sunday spent her time in Michigan where she vowed to stop the Israel war in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Trump zigzagged through Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia — the three biggest swing states. He also said in Lititz, Pennsylvania that he wouldn’t mind if journalists were shot.
Discussing his near-miss assassination attempt against him in July, he said to laughter that to be hit again “somebody would have to shoot through the fake news — and I don’t mind that so much.”
With inputs from agencies