 "Will Donald Trump benefit at the polls after second assassination attempt?")
On July 14, Donald Trump was addressing a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania when a gunman managed to clip the former US president’s ear in an assassination attempt. The incident ended with the Secret Service killing the gunman, later identified as 20-year-old Thomas Crooks.
Two months on, on September 15, Trump was once again the victim of a second assassination attempt while he was playing golf at the Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach, Florida with his friend and real estate Republican mega-donor Steve Witkoff. This time, emergency unfolded at 1.30 pm when the Secret Service reported that shots had been fired. While Trump escaped unhurt, the suspected gunman, Ryan Wesley Routh, was arrested and taken into custody.
The second shooting is the latest twist to a political season that has endured one shock after another. Now, the question that many are asking is — will it be a boost to Trump, the Republican candidate, before the November 5 elections.
Sunday’s assassination attempt
On Sunday, Trump was the target of an assassination attempt in Florida whilst he played golf. The Secret Service , charged with Trump’s security, said that one or more of its agents had “opened fire on a gunman” located near the boundary of Trump’s golf course, and that an “AK-47 style rifle” with a scope was recovered along with a GoPro video camera.
Amid the confrontation with the Secret Service, the suspect bolted out of the shrubbery he had been hiding in and escaped in a black car. A witness helped police identify the vehicle and authorities tracked it down, arresting the suspected gunman, who has now been identified as Ryan Wesley Routh .
Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw told a press conference later that a Secret Service agent, who was performing a security sweep, spotted a rifle barrel with a scope sticking out of a fence and opened fire on the suspect. Trump was about 300-500 yards from the incident, which he said that “with a rifle and a scope like that, that’s not a long distance.”
Shortly after the assassination attempt unfolded, Trump said in a website fundraising message: “Fear not! I am safe and well, and no one was hurt. Thank God!”
A rallying cry
Following the second assassination attempt, Trump and his supporters used the news to rally support for him ahead of the November 5 elections. Trump’s top campaign advisers, Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, called the suspect an “evil monster”.
Meanwhile, Kash Patel, a former appointee in Trump’s Defence Department, wrote on X: “The greatest warrior.”
Other Republicans also seized the opportunity once again to slam the Democrats, saying it was their rhetoric that endangered Trump’s life. “This rhetoric against President Trump, this narrative that he will be the next dictator, that he is the next Hitler coming, it has got to stop. Enough is enough,” said Mike Waltz, of Florida, in an interview with Fox News. “And when you have this narrative coming from the left, from [the] media, from elected officials, even, that Trump has to be stopped by any means necessary, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that these people are being radicalised and taking action like this.”
There were other Trump supporters who echoed similar sentiments. For instance, Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk wrote on X, “They are going to keep trying to kill Trump. This is only beginning. This stops only when we win in November.”
Trump’s campaign himself used the shooting as a means to urge for new donations. A message was sent out to supporters, which read, “Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER SURRENDER! I will always love you for supporting me. Unity. Peace.” The message is linked to a fundraising page wherein it states, “There are people in this world who will do whatever it takes to stop us. I will not stop fighting for you.”
Political impact uncertain
After the second shooting, many political pundits and observers are considering the political ramifications of the incident. Will it help Trump ahead of the polls?
Most observers are unsure if it will. As GOP polling expert Frank Lutz noted on X, “My ‘controversial’ take on the gunshots near Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach today: We need to wait for the facts to be determined before reacting.”
Most argue that the imagery and circumstances between the first and second assassination attempts are different. After the first assassination attempt , Trump emerged almost like a martyr — a bloodied ear, his fist raised in defiance. This, according to many, helped him and in the aftermath, there was a significant ‘Trump Bump’ in the polling.
However, that’s not the case in the second assassination bid. Trump was playing golf at a private event with no audience and he escaped totally unscathed.
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant and ardent Trump critic, told the Los Angeles Times, “Donald Trump’s high point of enthusiasm was immediately after the shooting in Pennsylvania, heading into his own convention. This latest incident gives his base yet another reason to show up and maybe for people on his side to say, ‘This is what we are fighting against’. “But in terms of the enthusiasm gap, that advantage still goes to Harris and I wouldn’t think that will change.”
Frank Luntz held similar views. “I was pretty sure that Trump’s defiant gesture after being fired upon would propel his re-election. To my surprise, it hasn’t even been the most important event of the campaign. This second shooting incident is not likely to have an impact, either. I don’t see anything other than a war having a meaningful, measurable impact on a decisive segment of the population.”
In fact, July’s shooting already feels like a small blip in the election cycle, with its many twists and turns.
There are others who believe that the Trump assassination bid may give the former US president an edge as the coverage will veer towards him. Until now, his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, was enjoying the media focus following her strong performance at the September 10 debate . Now, the media will carry coverage on the suspect and on Trump, which could potentially be beneficial to the Republican.
Dangerous times for the US
While the impact of the shooting on the US polls remains uncertain, it definitely highlights the violence that permeates American society. As a Secret Service agent said after the assassination bid, “We live in dangerous times.”
And it’s true. Several experts have noted that there’s more political violence to be seen in the country.
There’s more political vitriol being spewed from both sides, say experts, which is fuelling this situation.
CNN has an interesting take on Trump’s shooting. In a report, the US media outlet states that in the coming days, there will be debate about the extent to which the former president has helped to stoke the nation’s divides.
It is left to be seen if this second Trump assassination makes an impact on the polls, but perhaps, it’s time that the US heed President Joe Biden’s words — “There is no place for political violence or for any violence ever in our country
With inputs from agencies
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