 "Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, joined by wife Melania Trump and son Barron Trump, as he arrives to speaks at an election night watch party. AP")
It looks like America has made its decision and we are on the path of seeing a comeback of Donald Trump.
US media have thus far projected that the former US president has won in 24 states, including big prizes Texas and Ohio , key battlegrounds Georgia and North Carolina and other reliably Republican-leaning states whereas his rival, Kamala Harris has captured 15 states including big electoral vote prizes California and New York — as well as the US capital Washington.
Some reports show that the 78-year-old Republican is improving on his 2020 margins. According to a Politico analysis, Trump has improved on his 2020 margin in 92 per cent of them. His greatest improvements came in Florida. He also improved in Democratic areas such as the blue suburbs of northern Virginia, which had moved against him from 2016 to 2020, including Loudoun and Prince William counties.
These results contradict the exit polls that predicted a win for Kamala Harris. But how did this happen? What seems to have worked in Trump’s favour?
Strong anti-incumbency feelings
If there’s one big reason why Donald Trump is on the path to victory in this White House race it is the strong anti-incumbency feeling that pervaded in the US.
In an ABC/Ipsos poll released on Sunday, voters said they think the country is heading in the wrong direction — 74 per cent said so. Since 1980, this number of the number of voters who think the nation is heading in the wrong direction has been a surefire predictor that the party in power would lose the White House.
Notably, this is a trend being seen worldwide. Ruling parties have either lost seats or control of government altogether in Japan, Austria, and Britain, among other nations.
In the US campaign, sensing this anti-incumbency feeling, Harris tried to sell herself as a candidate of change. But, with being the current vice president and Trump’s constant attempts to link her to Biden, it seems voters chose otherwise.
It seems that Trump’s remarks on the economy have also resonated with the American voter. Prior to the polls, a whopping 62 per cent of people believed that the economic conditions in the country were worsening. This despite prices climbing just 2.1 per cent in September over a year earlier, and the economy growing at 2.8 per cent in the last quarter.
Immigration
Another factor that swayed in Trump’s favour is immigration, or in his case, how illegal immigration poses a threat to the American public. Throughout his campaign, he has emphasised his tough stance on immigration. He has criticised President Biden for not effectively handling the crisis at the southern border and has targeted Kamala Harris, calling her the “border czar” and blaming her for the issues there.
In a contentious debate, Trump even made a false claim that illegal immigrants in Ohio were attacking pets and harming locals.
And it seems that his message resonated with the US voter. When Gallup recently asked voters which party is better able to handle the issue that matters to them most — whatever that issue may be — they trusted the Republicans over the Democrats by a 46 per cent to 41 per cent margin.
The gender factor
When Donald Trump initially won the US presidential elections, he defeated Hillary Clinton. This time, it’s Kamala Harris. This suggests that many voters have trouble envisioning a woman in the Oval Office.
A New York Times poll in October found that Trump was more favourable among male voters compared to Kamala Harris — 55 per cent to 41 per cent.
Additionally, Trump’s uninhibited style, along with his promises of a booming economy, found a voice with Black and Latino men. That helped him chip away at a vital part of the Democratic base.
His persona of being a strong man with strong views and putting America first is also a factor contributing to his win. His remarks on ending the ongoing wars — even though he hasn’t provided any concrete steps — won the people over, it seems. The Ukraine war has dragged on, powered by huge financial support from the US. However, many Americans don’t see value in this spending.
Donald trumps the rural vote
It’s not surprising that Donald Trump has won big in the rural areas of the US. However, that Trump was able to extend his lead in the areas is significant. In rural counties across Pennsylvania, for example, the general trend as votes were counted was that Trump was able to both increase turnout and increase his margin of support in the GOP heartland.
One obvious example of this rural surge: Lackawanna County, home to President Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton, swung 5.6 points to the right from 2020 — even though Kamala Harris still looked on track to win the county by the smallest of margins, reported Vox.
With inputs from agencies