Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in close US election. But can this change?

If you want to know who has won the US presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, we don’t have a clear answer yet. However, first results have been trickling in, as polling has closed in almost all states.

What are the early results saying?

More than two hours into the counting Donald Trump is leading against Harris. According to CNN, Trump is leading in 211 Electoral College votes and Harris in 145. Each of them need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

According to the Associated Press, Trump has 178 electoral votes and Harris is at 99.

As initial results came in, the US media projected that Trump would win in 15 states and Harris in seven. There are 50 states in the country.

The US media is projecting wins for Trump in Ohio, Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Idaho and Mississippi. These are the states that he won in 2020.

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Several states including California, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and the US capital Washington, DC are projected to go to Harris.

What matters most in the closely contested election are the swing states. They hold the key to victory in the US election.

As of now, Trump is leading in three and Harris in two. The Republican candidate is ahead in Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina, while the vice president is ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The battleground states are too early to call.

It might seem for now that Trump has an upper hand but this could change.

According to CNN’s Chris Wallace, there have been “no surprises” or states that have flipped parties. “All the states that [Donald] Trump won in that he’s won tonight are states that he won in 2020… All the states that [Kamala] Harris won are states that [Joe] Biden won in 2020. There’s been no swing state that has been flipped yet.”

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Why early results are not an indicator of a winner

Early vote returns in US battleground states may not be a good indicator of whether Harris or Trump will win, experts say, thanks to vote counting rules and quirks in several key states.

In the 2020 election, some states showed a “red mirage”, in which Trump was leading on election night, before a “blue shift” saw Democrat Joe Biden overtake him as mail-in ballots favoured by more Democratic voters were counted.

Experts had accurately predicted it would happen but Trump still used the shift to amplify his false claims that the election was stolen.

It could happen again this week, especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The opposite – a “blue mirage” apparently showing a strong result for Harris only for a “red shift” to reverse the trend - could also happen this week, especially in North Carolina and Georgia.

With inputs from agencies